92L

[ROLLTIDE]

Alabamawx.com

Quote:We have also seen hints of a tropical wave moving up through South Alabama into Georgia late in the week, but model consistency has not been very good with that feature.

[Joe-Nathan]

This what the GFS is picking up on.

FROM IMPACT WX:

Disturbance 33 Advisory 2
Issued: Monday, August 12th 2013 2:55pm CDT

Quote:Current Position: 15.2N / 73.8W
Geographic Reference: 935 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico
Movement: West at 20 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 10 percent
Chance of Development Within 120 hours: 60 percent

Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the chance of development within 48 hours from 0 to 10 percent, and we have raised development chances through 5 days from 50 to 60 percent. Based on the most recent model guidance, confidence is increasing that Disturbance 33 will take a northward track through the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. We think the center is likely to reach the coast between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Saturday evening, which is a little earlier than in the previous advisory.

Our Forecast
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in the central Caribbean this afternoon in association with Disturbance 33. On Wednesday, the disturbance will likely begin to consolidate in the northwest Caribbean Sea, where conditions aloft will be favorable for slow development. We think that there is a good chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical storm near the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday or early Friday, depending upon its interaction with the peninsula. Once in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night, steering currents should carry it generally to the north with a gradual turn to the north-northeast. West flow aloft across Texas would likely keep the system away from the Texas coast. Landfall would most likely occur somewhere between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Saturday.

While environmental conditions across the Gulf of Mexico will be favorable for slow development, the conditions do not appear to be favorable for a large storm to develop. We think that this storm would be small to average-sized. Though none of the computer models is indicating that this system will become a hurricane, that is something we cannot rule out.

As for timing of potential impact across the northern Gulf, squalls associated with the system could reach the deepwater areas off the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts as early as midday Friday or Friday afternoon. The weather across the northern Gulf in advance of the system will be good for possible evacuations through at least Thursday, and possibly for part of Friday.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Cayman Islands, Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches of rain is likely during the middle part of this week due to enhanced showers and thunderstorms associated with Disturbance 33.
North Gulf Coast (southeast LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle): The first squalls could move ashore as early as early Saturday morning.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northern Gulf of Mexico: The last full day of safe helicopter operations is expected to be Thursday. Squalls from the disturbance are likely to reach the deepwater lease areas offshore eastern Louisiana and Mississippi around midday Friday to Friday afternoon.

The next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT.

Meteorologists: Andrew Hagen / Chris Hebert


Forecast Hour
Valid Lat Lon Max Winds Max Gusts Classification
0
3PM CDT Mon Aug 12 15.20N 73.80W 20kts 30kts Tropical Disturbance
24
3PM CDT Tue Aug 13 16.20N 79.50W 20kts 30kts Tropical Disturbance
48
3PM CDT Wed Aug 14 18.50N 84.80W 20kts 30kts Tropical Disturbance
72
3PM CDT Thu Aug 15 21.40N 88.30W 25kts 35kts Tropical Disturbance
96
3PM CDT Fri Aug 16 24.40N 90.00W 30kts 40kts Tropical Disturbance
120
3PM CDT Sat Aug 17 28.70N 88.80W 30kts 40kts Tropical Disturbance

[Kelly_Jernigan]

Texas high pressure will kill it.

[Smitter]

Where is Cantore headed had to say it.

[ROLLTIDE]

.....

Quote:[h=2]Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup[/h]

---

[/HR] Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ROLLTIDE]

Levi update

[video=youtube;qzfPMJhJrsg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzfPMJhJrsg[/video]

[jackkip]

Kelly_Jernigan Wrote:Texas high pressure will kill it.

The Texas high is never going away....we are going to be in a drought forever /mellow/mellow

[Batt2fd]

[FrenchQuarterGuy]

A psychic I have followed for years posted a video on 12/12/12 last year and she pinpointed 5 or 6 storms for this year. The location of this tropical wave is one that she spoke of. If she is correct, this (Erin) will move Northward, ramp up to a cat 2 in the gulf, and make landfall on the Northern Gulf coast as a weak cat 1/strong tropical storm. She says it will stall in the gulf, gather speed, then gradually weaken before making landfall.

Last year, she correctly predicted Hurricane Isaac's path several months in advance, even spoke about how the forecasters were going to say Florida but how it would ultimately go left into Louisiana (Which sucked for us in NOLA!) I have a feeling that she will be spot on about this one (Erin).

AND, if she is correct, then she also says TX(Houston) and South Carolina will get cat 2-3s and the NE will see another Sandy. That would be a doozie!

[FloridaFire]

1995 Hurricane Erin hit Pensacola how ironic would that be to get hit again almost 18 years later. Hmmmmm