92L

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

NEXT

Quote:1. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[jj20030]

92L, buh bye

[Kelly_Jernigan]

And there goes texas' rain

[FloridaFire]

Man these guys who predict these storms really are needing a better system looks like they really are guessing at it North,South,oh wait West. Only thing they really picked correctly is the rain amount. Lol.

[ROLLTIDE]

Nado Warning

Quote:ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

917 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BRANTLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA



* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT



* AT 917 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7

MILES WEST OF HICKOX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.



* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

HICKOX...NAHUNTA...WAYNESVILLE AND RAYBON.

[ROLLTIDE]

Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[breezy]

is "92L" gonna move towards south texas sometime and bring some rain ?

[SevereWxEnthusiast]

FloridaFire Wrote:Man these guys who predict these storms really are needing a better system looks like they really are guessing at it North,South,oh wait West. Only thing they really picked correctly is the rain amount. Lol.

Well, I know this sounds cliche' but the NHC did the best they could with this one. The real problem is that 92L was on the fence of developing or not it's whole life. it just didn't develop, and until an actual low level circulation happens with good convection (a depression), the models just cant do a good job of direction let alone intensity. throw into the mix the complex steering mechanisms and the whole thing can go out the window every six hours.