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TROPICAL STORM KAREN
09-30-2013, 02:27 PM
Post: #21
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Where is everybody ?

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09-30-2013, 02:33 PM (This post was last modified: 09-30-2013 02:35 PM by miamilisa.)
Post: #22
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Mission accomplished... logged in...amen

(09-29-2013 06:21 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Roll,

The only Florida threat is the rest of the SEC.

Phil
A Hurricane already took care of that...


GO CANES!

/stupid
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09-30-2013, 02:46 PM
Post: #23
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
(09-30-2013 02:33 PM)miamilisa Wrote:  Mission accomplished... logged in...amen

(09-29-2013 06:21 PM)pcbjr Wrote:  Roll,

The only Florida threat is the rest of the SEC.

Phil
A Hurricane already took care of that...


GO CANES!
Good one Wink

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09-30-2013, 05:35 PM
Post: #24
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Alabamawx.com starting to do a complete 360


Quote: TROPICS: Tropical Storm Jerry is now on the board over the Central
Atlantic; it will basically loop around this week and will remain far
from land. The disturbance in the Caribbean could show some development
late this week; it will move across the Yucatan Peninsula, and will come
out over the Bay of Campeche by Thursday or Friday. As discussed above,
the most likely track for this will take it into Mexico, but that is
certainly not carved in stone. We will keep an eye on it.

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09-30-2013, 06:17 PM
Post: #25
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
NWS MOBILE

Quote: THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A WEAK BAROTROPIC LOW OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVES IT
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY PASSING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSELY
PHASED WITH TIMING SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL
ON SUNDAY. 77/BD

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09-30-2013, 10:31 PM
Post: #26
Thumbs Down GFS says Mobile Bay
18z run of the GFS brings a strong depression or weak TS over Mobile Bay at 120 hours, that would be Saturday the biggest day of Bayfest in Mobile (the largest outdoor music fest in Alabama) oh boy. Undecided

Crazy Dale
The nine scariest words in the english language: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." -Ronald Reagan
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10-01-2013, 05:16 AM (This post was last modified: 10-01-2013 05:27 AM by Batt2fd.)
Post: #27
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: models_storm2.jpg]

[Image: storm_97.gif]

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
www.MyFloridaHurricane.Info
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10-01-2013, 06:37 AM
Post: #28
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Quote: [Image: at201397_model.gif]

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10-01-2013, 06:39 AM
Post: #29
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
..
Quote: tlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup












[Image: atl1.gif]
Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

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10-01-2013, 06:58 AM (This post was last modified: 10-01-2013 07:00 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #30
Video RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
Alabamawx


Quote: Dry Through Friday; Rain Returns This Weekend






James Spann | 6:23 am October 1, 2013




An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

EYE ON THE TROPICS: No doubt the weekend will be wet at times around
here, and that is the focus since a tropical system could be involved.
But, in the short term, confidence is high that the rest of the week
will be rain-free across the great state of Alabama, with partly sunny,
warm days and fair pleasant nights.

We begin the month of October with some cool 50s over Northeast
Alabama; Vic Bell up at Black Creek reports 54 degrees in Etowah County;
Fort Payne is at 55 at daybreak. We warm into the low 80s today, and
highs tomorrow through Friday will be in the low to mid 80s. Any showers
should remain west of Alabama near the Mississippi River thanks to a
weak disturbance aloft over Louisiana.

The weather looks fine for high school football games across the
state Thursday and Friday night with no rain and pleasant temperatures.

WEEKEND WETNESS: A strong surface low will move from Nebraska to
Minnesota Saturday, dragging a cold front down this way. We will deal
with rain ahead of the front, and there is a real chance the rain could
be enhanced by a tropical low moving in from the south.

As you might expect at this early phase of the game, there are timing
differences in the models. The ECMWF (European) is actually a little
faster than the GFS, and brings the rain into Alabama Saturday morning,
but for now we will continue to ride with the GFS and the GEM
(Canadian). We believe the primary 24 hour window for rain will come
from 3:00 p.m. Saturday until 3:00 p.m. Sunday. And, if a tropical low
is involved, the rain could be widespread, and maybe even heavy at
times. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely, with potential for
more if the tropical system rides along the front.

It will be a very close call for the Alabama/Georgia State game in
Tuscaloosa… kickoff is at 11:21a CT, and while there is a chance the
rain holds off until the final whistle, there is no guarantee the game
will be dry. And, for the Auburn/Ole Miss game Saturday night at
Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff), rain is a real possibility. But,
we will be much more specific with these football forecasts tomorrow.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler and drier air blows into Alabama early next week.
Highs drop into the mid 70s, and a good chance lows will be in the 40s
early Tuesday; the coolest air so far this season.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Jerry will stay in the Central Atlantic far
from land in coming days. The system to watch is the one over the
Caribbean. Models have now made a big adjustment, and almost all of them
show this system being pulled northward in response to the big upper
trough moving through the Central U.S. There is a chance this can become
better organized in the days ahead, perhaps becoming Tropical Storm
Karen in the Gulf of Mexico. Odds do not favor this reaching hurricane
strength, but the threat of heavy rain is a real possibility somewhere
across the Southeast U.S.

We just can’t be specific now since the system is disorganized and
just getting on the board. But, clearly now this could be an issue for
Alabama this weekend, perhaps giving parts of the state a heavy rain
threat. Stay tuned.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We project about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each
day through Friday from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with scattered
showers and storms possible. Then, the weather turns wet this weekend
with occasional showers and thunderstorms likely late Saturday into
Sunday. The rain could be heavy, and surf very rough, all depending on
the system in the Caribbean we mentioned (potential Tropical Storm
Karen).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes.
This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices,
including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show
notes on the new episode we recorded last night.
CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…



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