TROPICAL STORM KAREN

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(10-01-2013 07:56 AM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  

Quote:RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT


HWRF



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/...6.WV17.png

Dam James, don't do that...

That look looks very similar to another recent storm in LA/MS history.

So I shouldn't mention the name Katrina

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[Joe-Nathan]

(10-01-2013 08:12 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  

(10-01-2013 07:56 AM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  

Quote:RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT


HWRF



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/...6.WV17.png

Dam James, don't do that...

That look looks very similar to another recent storm in LA/MS history.

So I shouldn't mention the name Katrina

You have been warned...

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Jeff Masters

Quote:Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
WInd shear is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The lack of wind shear on Tuesday and Wednesday should allow 97L to moisten the atmosphere and wall off the dry air to its northwest that is slowing down development, and I expect 97L will be close to tropical depression status by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 4 - 8" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier and wind shear will increase as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and these combined effects will likely retard development. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle, while the European model is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. Neither model shows 97L developing tropical storm-force winds. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 30%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 40% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, a 10% chance it will be stronger, and a 50% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...VGm29Gi.99

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Latest models

http://flhurricane.com/images/2013/clark12latest.png

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..

Quote:
NOUS42 KNHC 011525
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 01 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WV

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