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TROPICAL STORM KAREN
10-01-2013, 10:51 AM
Post: #51
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 10:57 AM
Post: #52
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
NWS Mobile


Quote: ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
MONITORING A CONCENTRATED ARE OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 120 MILES
EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER. FROM THIS AREA...THE GLOBAL
MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST OUTLOOKS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CALL FOR A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOMETHING FORECASTERS WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE
ON.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...A COMPLICATED FORECAST TO
BEGIN THE OUTLOOK. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST IN DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO/CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS ARE
SLOWER...WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THEIR REPRESENTATION. THE UPPER
AIR FLOW PATTERN IS SUCH THAT A POLEWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH THE
GULF SYSTEM. SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCHING. BY THE WEEKEND...A
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS.
ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THE GULF LOW AND ITS ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE COULD VERY WELL MERGE WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SINCE THIS IS A FEW DAYS OUT...WILL CARRY AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE. NOTE:
FORECASTS MAY CHANGE MARKEDLY ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE GULF LOW...ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK. STAY TUNED.

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10-01-2013, 11:05 AM
Post: #53
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:10 AM
Post: #54
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
[Image: gfsfull_pres_pcpn_watl_35.png]

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10-01-2013, 11:18 AM
Post: #55
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:41 AM
Post: #56
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:42 AM
Post: #57
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:42 AM
Post: #58
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:55 AM
Post: #59
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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10-01-2013, 11:56 AM
Post: #60
RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT
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