TROPICAL STORM KAREN

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NWS N.O

Quote: Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
531 am CDT Sat Oct 5 2013

Short term...

Tropical Storm Karen remains a very weak system this morning...as
very strong shear and dry air entrainment are greatly impacting
convective development near the core of the storm. Farther to the
northwest...a very potent upper level trough and associated cold
front will continue to sweep through the Southern Plains toward
the lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area. With increasing
shear anticipated in advance of this trough...there will be very
little if any increase in strength with the tropical storm...and
the current forecast maintains the system as a weak tropical storm
as it is picked up by the approaching trough and quickly driven to
the east and northeast tonight into tomorrow.
The impacts from Tropical Storm Karen will be greatest along the
immediate coast of southeast Louisiana from lower St Bernard
Parish through lower Terrebonne Parish. Expect to several periods
of rainfall to sweep through this area through tomorrow and strong
easterly and then northerly winds of 20 to 40 miles per hour with gusts to 50
miles per hour can be expected. Along the Mississippi coast and areas around
Lake Pontchartrain...more minimal impacts are expected...with
periods of moderately heavy showers and easterly and then
northerly winds of 15 to 30 miles per hour with gusts to 40 miles per hour expected.
Temperatures will be rather warm today...with highs climbing into
the upper 80s and lower 90s. These warm conditions will linger
into tonight...with overnight lows only dipping into the 70s.
Rainfall has been pared back across the region...with a general 1
to 2 inch rainfall expected for metropolitan New Orleans and the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. Along the southeast Louisiana
coast...rainfall of 2 to 4 inches will still be possible by Sunday
afternoon. Rainfall of one inch or less is expected across the
remainder of the forecast...and most of this rain will be
associated with the approaching strong cold front and any
convection that develops along it.

In the wake of the tropical system and front...very strong cold
and dry air advection will take hold as the upper level trough
axis slides through the area. Temperatures will plunge into the
lower to middle 50s for northern and western zones by Sunday
morning...with readings dipping into the lower to middle 60s over
eastern and southern zones. Highs will be below normal on
Monday...as part of the middle to upper level cold pool slides
through the lower Mississippi Valley. Daytime highs will struggle
to reach 80 degrees.

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[FrenchQuarterGuy]

there's the cloud tops! Looks like NOLA will actually get rain out of this I just wanted a nice breeze!

[sircane]

There are storms around the Eastern eyewall trying to fire up.

[ROLLTIDE]

10AM

Quote: 000
WTNT42 KNHC 051432
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS AROUND 35 KT FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS IN KAREN
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT MISSIONS INTO KAREN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE IF
THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS
BETWEEN A 30-KT DEPRESSION AND A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD EASILY OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
KAREN SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY AFTER
48 HOURS.

KAREN HAS BEEN MOVED QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
355/07...AS KAREN HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD. A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MORE
NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
TRACK...WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
INLAND. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED
QUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD
AFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE
DECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST NOW THAT
KAREN IS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SINCE THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL HAVE LESS BEARING ON
WHERE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 27.9N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 28.7N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.4N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 07/1200Z 31.3N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[sircane]

The convection may wrap around the center right at the last minute. It's trying.