TROPICAL STORM KAREN

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[Her-icane]

JM

Quote:Karen Weakens Significantly; 4 Feet of Snow in South Dakota; 18 Tornadoes in Midwest

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2013+23


Tropical Storm Karen has weakened to a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds as it heads towards landfall in Southeast Louisiana. Karen continues to struggle with high wind shear of 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation. Satellite loops show the classic appearance of a sheared storm, with the low level center exposed to view, and the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side by the high shear. A spiral band on the north side of Karen's center of circulation moved over Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Friday afternoon, bringing a few scattered areas of 1" of rain. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows a few thunderstorms over land, with the bulk of Karen's rain offshore. Karen brought a storm surge of up to 1.6' above normal along the Louisiana and Mississippi coast Saturday morning, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen.

Forecast for Karen
The computer models have come into good agreement on the track of Karen, with the storm expected to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana and pass near or to the south of New Orleans early Sunday morning. With wind shear showing no signs of letting up, any strengthening of Karen on Saturday will be slow, and it is more likely that the storm will weaken to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds before landfall. NHC's 11 am EDT Saturday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 47%. New Orleans has a 38% chance, and the rest of the coast from Mississippi to Pensacola, Florida has odds ranging from 20% - 30%. Karen should cause mostly minor damage at landfall, with flooding rains, storm surge, and a few weak tornadoes of concern.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMas...MfLYqW6.99

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[sircane]

This is one tough storm to not have dissipated. Beating the odds and already looking better than last night.

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Stalled again unlike my Alabama teams offense

Quote: KAREN STALLS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5
Location: 27.9°N 91.8°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[sircane]

Waiting to hitch that ride from the front to the NE and ENE.

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