Post Reply 
TROPICAL STORM KAREN
10-05-2013, 09:49 PM
Post: #721
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
TD

Quote:




[b]10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5[/b]

Location: 28.1°N 91.9°W

Moving: Stationary

Min pressure: 1008 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-05-2013, 09:54 PM
Post: #722
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
IMPACT WX UPDATE:
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory 25a

Issued: Saturday, October 5th 2013 9:47pm CDT

Quote:Karen has been downgraded to a depression by the National Hurricane Center, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. Most wind reports across the area are coming in around 15 mph to 20 mph.
Meteorologist: Jim Palmer

Tropical Storm Karen Advisory 25

Issued: Saturday, October 5th 2013 8:40pm CDT


Current Location: 28.1N, 92.1W
Geographic Reference: 120 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, LA
Movement: Drifting westward near 3 mph
Our Estimated Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
National Hurricane Center Estimated Max Winds (as of 7 PM CDT): 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph
Organizational Trend: Steady
Current and Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size / 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 35 miles (east of the track)
Forecast Confidence: Average


Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have shifted the track slightly to the right (south) of the previous track.


Our Forecast
Most of the squalls associated with Karen remain well to the east, and are weakening this evening. The center appears disorganized on satellite imagery, and there is only a small area of tropical storm force winds possible east of the center. Recon reports from a few hours ago and current surface reports indicate Karen has weakened into a depression. The National Hurricane Center could downgrade the system later this evening or overnight. Strengthening is unlikely and we think Karen will remain a weak system until it is absorbed by a cold front over the next couple of days.
Karen has been drifting very slowly westward over the past few hours. A cold front moving into the Gulf overnight should push Karen to the east-northeast over the next 6 to 12 hours, with a general east-northeast motion expected until Karen dissipates or is absorbed by the front over central Georgia on Monday. It remains possible that Karen could dissipate over the next 12 to 24 hours.


Expected Impacts Onshore
Southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle:
Rain: 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals of 4 inches are possible across portions of the area through tomorrow night.
Wind: Sustained winds of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are possible along the immediate coastline.
Surge: Tides across southeastern Louisiana are currently running about 2 feet above normal in spots. Tides as high as 2 to 3 feet above normal are possible in areas of strong onshore flow through tomorrow night.


Expected Impacts Offshore
Northern Gulf of Mexico: Most areas offshore southeastern Louisiana are currently experiencing sustained winds between 15 mph to 30 mph. Conditions will begin to improve Sunday evening after the center moves to the east-northeast, away from the area.
The next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologists: Jim Palmer/ Jeremy Mazon

Trained Weather Spotter
CoCoRaHS Volunteer
https://www.instagram.com/bostickjm
https://twitter.com/BostickJM
http://www.livechasers.com/JonathanBostick
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:12 AM
Post: #723
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
Fat lady is about to sing

Quote: 000
WTNT42 KNHC 060831
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT. GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2. KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 28.3N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 29.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:14 AM
Post: #724
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: GOES11402013279ptxRJF.jpg]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:15 AM
Post: #725
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: hifloat5_None_anim.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:16 AM
Post: #726
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
8AM

Quote: 8 AM TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:16 AM
Post: #727
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: WUNIDS_map?station=LIX&brand=wui&...p;smooth=0]
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:17 AM
Post: #728
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
Nice to see some much cooler air on the way for the gulfcoast


[Image: prog12hr.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:19 AM
Post: #729
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN
[Image: rgb-animated.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
10-06-2013, 07:38 AM
Post: #730
RE: TROPICAL STORM KAREN


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)