TROPICAL STORM KAREN

[Batt2fd]

[ROLLTIDE]

IMPACT WX

Quote: Disturbance 58 Advisory 8

Issued: Tuesday, October 1st 2013 6:26am CDT

Current Location: 15.5N / 80.8W
Geographic Reference: 255 miles south of Grand Cayman
Movement: Northwest near 7 mph
Organizational trend: Increasing slightly
Chance of Development Within 48 hours: 20 percent
Chance of Development Beyond 48 hours: 30 percent
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the chance of development slightly to 20 percent through 48 hours and to 30 percent through 120 hours.
Our Forecast

Disturbance 58 continues to the northwest. This motion should continue
for the next couple of days. Thereafter, a more northward motion is
expected. Our forecast still takes the disturbance over the northern
Gulf Coast on Saturday. Disturbance 58 has become
slightly better organized during the overnight hours. Squalls have
increased near the broad low level circulation. However, moderate wind
shear is expected to affect the disturbance. As it moves into the
northern Gulf, shear is likely to increase further as it interacts with
an approaching cold front. Due to the expected wind shear, we have only
slightly increased the development chances despite the increase in
organization.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Western Caribbean Sea: Gusts of 40 mph to 50 mph within squalls will be possible through early Thursday.
Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico:
Squalls are likely to affect the eastern and central Gulf late Thursday
through late Saturday. The squalls could produce wind gusts to 50 mph. The next advisory will be issued by 3 PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Jeremy Mazon

[Joe-Nathan]

This will be an interesting one to watch. The timing of the next cold front will be the controlling factor in this system. Front slows and LA/TX are targets, front speeds up then S. FL is target. So lets see if she even survives the trip thru all the dry air over southern GOM.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

HWRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/...6.WV17.png

[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

Quote:RE: INVEST 97L FL THREAT


HWRF



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/...6.WV17.png

Dam James, don't do that...

That look looks very similar to another recent storm in LA/MS history.

[ROLLTIDE]

I am expecting a TS before the end of the day

[Joe-Nathan]

(10-01-2013 07:58 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  I am expecting a TS before the end of the day

I agree, she is getting organized real quick like.

But she still has to survive the high shear ahead of her.

[ROLLTIDE]