HURRICANE ARTHUR

[Her-icane]

TWO 8pm EDT Sat 6/29

Quote:Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup


Return to
Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southeast
of the coast of South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for gradual development of this system while
it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

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Recon

Quote:000
NOUS42 KNHC 281239
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0835 AM EDT SAT 28 JUNE 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JUNE 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 29/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 29/1545Z
D. 30.0N 78.0W
E. 29/1745Z TO 29/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-
A. 30/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 30/0930Z
D. 29.5N 78.0W
E. 30/1145Z TO 30/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

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JM

[quote]Disturbance 91L off Southeast U.S. Coast May Develop

An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream current off the Southeast U.S. coast has been designated Invest 91L by NHC. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed 91L with only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was poorly organized. There was no hint of a surface circulation trying to form. [url=http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/melbourne/mlb/?lat=28.07486725&lon=-80.63015747&label=Melbourne%2c%20FL]Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed a few modest areas of rainfall over the ocean about 50 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C--plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was moderate, 10 - 15 knots. The shear was due to strong upper-level winds out of the north, which were keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L. Water vapor satellite loops showed that the atmosphere was moderately moist off the Southeast U.S. coast, and dry air should not be a significant impediment to development. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 91L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 91L.


Forecast for 91L
The 12Z Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed light to moderate shear, 5 - 15 knots, over 91L for the next five days. With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. As of noon EDT, I'd put these odds higher, at 40% and 60%, respectively. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, and the uncertainty in the track of 91L is higher than usual. The 00Z Saturday run of the UKMET and European models predicted a slow motion to the northeast, with the European model showing a potential threat to the North Carolina coast by Thursday. The 00Z and 06Z Saturday runs of the GFS model predict the opposite motion, a slow track southwestwards with a landfall in Florida on Tuesday. None of these models showed 91L reaching tropical storm strength. The UKMET and European model have been pretty consistent with their recent runs, so I favor their solution of a more northeasterly motion for 91L over the next five days.

I'll have an update on Sunday.

Jeff Masters
[/url]

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[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

Quote: tlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup













Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. A low pressure system located about 230 miles east of Jacksonville,
Florida, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
as it moves slowly southward. Upper-level winds are only marginally
favorable, and proximity to dry air to the north of the disturbance
could inhibit formation of a tropical cyclone over the next couple
of days. By Wednesday, however, environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development of this system
while it drifts southward and meanders offshore of the Florida east
coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[ROLLTIDE]

CODE RED

Quote: Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup













Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low
pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine,
Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly
southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only
marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form
during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry
air could inhibit significant development until environmental
conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low
meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has
been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Alex]

Sinking air to the west of this thing leading to 95 degrees here at Bradenton. Tallahassee topped out at 98 this hour.

[Her-icane]

Masters

[quote]91L Growing More Organized; Will Bring Heavy Rains to Florida and the Bahamas


An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, about 230 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida (Invest 91L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early this week. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed 91L with only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but the system had a pronounced spin, and the heavy thunderstorms were organizing into spiral bands. [url=http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/melbourne/mlb/?lat=28.07486725&lon=-80.63015747&label=Melbourne%2c%20FL]Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed two of these bands about 75 - 150 miles east of the Central Florida coast. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C--plenty of heat energy for a developing tropical cyclone. Wind shear was light, 5 - 10 knots, but was enough to keep any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of 91L. Water vapor satellite loops showed some modest patches of dry air to the north of 91L, and this dry air was retarding development on Sunday morning. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 91L on Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 91L, taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on Sunday, June 29, 2014. Image credit: NASA.


Forecast for 91L
The 12Z Sunday run of the SHIPS model showed shear rising to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, beginning on Monday, and remaining moderate until the end of the week. There is a significant area of dry air to the north of 91L over North Carolina that may work its way south and get wrapped into its circulation on Monday and Tuesday, but this dry air should diminish on Wednesday. With the disturbance parked over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, organization into a tropical depression is a good possibility. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 70%, respectively. As of 11am EDT, the appearance of 91L on satellite images had improved to the point where I'd put the 2-day odds of development at 50%. Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast. The models all predict a slow southward drift on Sunday, followed by a southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida. The 06Z Sunday run of the GFS model has 91L making landfall over Florida on Tuesday, while the 00Z UKMET and European models stall the storm offshore, then accelerate it to the northeast later in the week, caught by a trough of low pressure to the north. Regardless of the exact track of 91L, the coast of Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas are likely to receive heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" on Monday and Tuesday from 91L. If 91L develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, widespread rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" will likely fall in coastal Central Florida and the Northwest Bahamas. Heavy rains are a potential threat for the coasts of Northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late in the week, but there is high uncertainty in this possibility.

Jeff Masters
[/url]

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[ROLLTIDE]

[Joe-Nathan]

FROM IMPACT WX:


Disturbance 6 (91L) Advisory 6

Quote:Issued: Monday, June 30th 2014 2:11am CDT

Current Location: 28.9N, 78.1W
Geographic Reference: 170 miles east of Daytona beach, FL
Movement: Southwest at 7 mph
Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 60 percent
Chance of Development Within 168 hours: 90 percent
Organizational trend: Steady
Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 150 miles
Forecast Confidence: Average
Changes From Our Previous Forecast

Changes to the track, intensity, and radii forecasts have been made
based upon the latest model guidance. We are now forecasting the system
to move near or over the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday as a
strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. This is just shy of hurricane
intensity, and there is an increasing chance that the system could
eventually become a hurricane. In addition, we are forecasting the
system to be larger than previously forecast. The peak forecast radius
of tropical storm force winds has been increased to 150 miles.
Our Forecast

The latest model guidance indicates an increasing risk to the Carolina
coast. More models are indicating a potential impact to land. This may
be due to the initial motion taking the system west of our previous
forecast track. Based upon the initial motion and the latest models, we
are now forecasting the system to move very near or over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina on Friday. Thereafter, the system should move more to
the east-northeast, and remain south of New England.

The low level circulation is becoming better defined. However, there
are few associated squalls. This is because winds at the upper and lower
levels of the atmosphere are unfavorable for development. The
unfavorable conditions should abate by late tomorrow. Therefore, the
system is likely to become a tropical depression late tomorrow or early
Wednesday. By early Thursday, it should become a tropical storm. On
Friday, the system is forecast to be near hurricane intensity as it
makes its closest approach to North Carolina.
Expected Impacts Onshore
East Coast of United States:
The chance of tropical storm conditions is increasing along the
Carolina coast late in the week. Winds of 65 mph to 70 mph, with gusts
to hurricane force, are possible along the coast. While the winds are
not likely to cause major structural damage, significant power outages
will be possible. Localized flooding due to heavy rains is also a
possibility.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Southeast Coast of U.S.:
Over the next 36 to 48 hours, squalls with gusts to 55 mph are
possible. Beyond that time, tropical storm conditions are possible
within 150 miles of the center with gusts in squalls reaching hurricane
force late in the week. Our next advisory will be issued by 9 AM CDT
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Cameron Self

[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

Quote: Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup













Return to Atlantic Graphical TWO
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with
a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of
Melbourne, Florida. However, surface pressures are falling, and
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly
southwestward and thens turns northward and northeastward near the
southeastern United States coast. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[ROLLTIDE]

2PM

Quote: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a low pressure area located about 125 miles east of Melbourne,
Florida. Environmental conditions are becoming more conducive for
development, and only a slight increase in organization would result
in the formation of a tropical depression. This system is moving
southwestward at around and 5 mph but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday near the east Florida coast. A
turn toward the northeast near the southeastern U.S. coast is
expected by Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is en route to investigate the disturbance. If this system becomes
a tropical cyclone, a tropical storm watch could be required for
portions of the central or northern Atlantic coast of Florida.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Joe-Nathan]

Cool little sight:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/win...30.75,3000

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RECON UP:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 20:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09

Quote:A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 19:57:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°46'N 78°52'W (27.7667N 78.8667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 104 miles (167 km) to the NE (45°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 119° at 21kts (From the ESE at ~ 24.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 397m (1,302ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph) at 0:45
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (64°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
/ 83 NM 19:30:30Z