Post Reply 
HURRICANE ARTHUR
06-30-2014, 04:49 PM
Post: #21
RE: INVEST 91L
...

Quote: SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low
pressure east of Florida.

Updated: An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is
investigating the area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east
of Melbourne, Florida. While the low is well defined, the
associated thunderstorm activity is just below the organizational
threshold required to initiate tropical cyclone advisories.
Environmental conditions continue to be favorable for development,
and only a slight increase in the organization and persistence of
the thunderstorm activity would result in the formation of a
tropical depression.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that peak sustained
winds with the low are about 30-35 mph. The low is moving
southwestward at around 5 mph, but is expected to turn westward
tonight and northward by Wednesday when it will be near the east
coast of Florida. If this system becomes a tropical cyclone, a
tropical storm watch could be required for portions of the central
or northern Atlantic coast of Florida. A turn toward the northeast
near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected by Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
06-30-2014, 06:03 PM (This post was last modified: 06-30-2014 06:51 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #22
RE: INVEST 91L
Masters
Quote:91L Near Tropical Depression Status; Entire SE U.S. Coast Could be Impacted
An area of disturbed weather over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, located about 130 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida on Monday morning (Invest 91L), has grown more organized this morning. Surface pressures are falling, and 91L is close to tropical depression status. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed 91L had a well defined surface circulation, with heavy thunderstorms building and steadily organizing into spiral bands. [url=http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/melbourne/mlb/?lat=28.07486725&lon=-80.63015747&label=Melbourne%2c%20FL]Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed these bands were already affecting the coast of Central Florida. Sea surface temperatures in this region were about 1°C above average, 27 - 28°C. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over 91L at high altitude, and these winds were creating light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. However, water vapor satellite loops show that the atmosphere has dried noticeably to the north of 91L since Sunday, and the northerly winds are driving this dry air in the heart of the storm. This dry air is interfering with development and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the north side of the circulation. The Hurricane Hunters will investigate 91L on Monday afternoon.

[Image: wv-jun30.jpg]
Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image of 91L taken at 10:45 am EDT Monday June 30, 2014. A large area of dry air (black colors) was to the north of the system, and was interfering with development. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


[Image: gfs-euro-jun30.png]
Figure 2. Wind forecast for 11 am Thursday, July 3, 2014, as made by the 06Z Monday June 30, 2014 run of the GFS model (left) and 00Z Monday run of the European model (right.) Both models are predicting that 91L will become a tropical storm and threaten the South Carolina coast on Thursday.


Forecast for 91L

Steering currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are in good agreement on the track of 91L. The disturbance should continue a slow southward to southwesterly motion on Monday, which would bring the storm very close to the coast of Florida by Tuesday. The system is expected to meander near the coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, before a trough of low pressure to the north begins pulling the system to the north and northeast on Thursday and Friday. Heavy rains of at least 2 - 4" will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida Monday through Wednesday. Heavier rains of 4 - 8" are likely, since I expect 91L to develop into a tropical depression on Monday or Tuesday. Heavy rains of 2 - 4" will spread to coastal Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts on Thursday and Friday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 60% and 80%, respectively. The 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model shows the atmosphere surrounding 91L will get even drier this week, with the wind shear staying light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots. This dry air, in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, will slow development of 91L. If 91L makes landfall over Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday, interaction with land will also interfere with development. However, the storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream when the center is offshore, and we should not dismiss the possibility that 91L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength late this week, as some of the members of the 00Z Monday morning European model ensemble were suggesting. It is more likely, though, that 91L will struggle with land interaction, dry air and wind shear, and be at worst a medium-strength tropical storm named Arthur with 50 - 55 mph winds as it brushes the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina on Thursday and Friday. There is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast, so stay tuned.

Jeff Masters
[/url]

Tweeted out by J Bastardi

[quote]Weatherbell.com track/intensity with 2cnd map of Arthur issued yesterday pm ( 24 hour embargo)
[Image: BrZ5rG_CMAAO4Uv.jpg]


Another Bastardi tweet

Quote:I am worried this can get to cat 3 by July 4..we have it as a 2. But to put in perspective, Able, MAY 1951 was cat 3 off NC.

[Image: plot20140630-1531.gif]

[Image: clarki1latest.png]

[Image: rgb0.gif]
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
06-30-2014, 09:55 PM (This post was last modified: 06-30-2014 10:23 PM by mavidal.)
Post: #23
RE: INVEST 91L
We have TD#1

749
WTNT21 KNHC 010253
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0300 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

316
WTNT41 KNHC 010314
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east
coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized
during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has
developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of
the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being
initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is
in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft mission.

The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of
days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion
estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the
depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early
Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward
then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to
approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should
cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is
still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to
the coast of the southeastern United States.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track
are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity
guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the
SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is
forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become
extratropical by day 5.

Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of
east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the
next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions
of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the
southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 06:59 AM
Post: #24
RE: TD#1
[Image: storm_91.gif]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 07:58 AM
Post: #25
RE: TD#1
Jeff Masters

Quote:

Tropical Depression One Forms off the Coast of East Florida






By:

Dr. Jeff Masters


, 7:36 AM GMT on July 01, 2014












Share this Blog





  • [Image: social_FacebookUp.png]
  • [Image: social_twitterUp.png]
  • [Image: social_googleUp.png]
  • [Image: social_redditUp.png]
  • [Image: social_emailUp.png]






Short Link




Full Link
















16



+








The Atlantic's first tropical depression of 2014 is here, as Tropical Depression One
finally formed at 11 pm EDT Monday evening from disturbance 91L. TD 1
was drifting southwest at 2 mph towards the east coast of Central
Florida early Tuesday morning. Long-range radar
out of Melbourne, Florida on Tuesday morning showed that bands of heavy
rain from TD 1 were affecting the Northwest Bahamas, and sustained
winds of 33 mph gusting to 36 mph were observed at Settlement Point in the Northwest Bahama Islands at 2 am EDT. Satellite loops
showed heavy thunderstorms were limited to the south side of TD 1's
center of circulation, and were slowly increasing in intensity and areal
coverage. The counter-clockwise circulation of an upper level high
pressure over Florida was bringing northerly winds over TD 1 at high
altitude, and these winds were creating moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Water vapor satellite loops
showed very dry air to the north of TD 1, and the northerly winds were
driving this dry air in the heart of the storm, interfering with
development, and keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the
north side of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will
investigate TD 1 on Tuesday morning, and the NOAA jet is scheduled to
fly Tuesday afternoon.

[Image: modis-jun30.jpg]
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 91L, taken at approximately 16:30 UTC (12:30 pm EDT) on Monday, June 30, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for TD 1
Steering
currents are weak off of the Southeast U.S. coast, but the models are
in good agreement on the track. The disturbance should continue a slow
southwesterly motion through Tuesday morning, then turn northwards or
north-northwestwards on Tuesday afternoon, and move parallel to the
Florida coast without making landfall in Florida, as the storm responds
to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. Heavy rains of 2 - 4"
will likely affect the Northwest Bahamas and eastern coast of Florida
Tuesday through Wednesday. By Wednesday, the models are in agreement
that TD 1 will turn northeast without hitting the coast of South
Carolina, but potentially pass very near the Outer Banks of North
Carolina on Friday morning. The 6Z Tuesday run of the SHIPS model
showed the atmosphere surrounding TD 1 will stay dry this week, with
the wind shear staying light to moderate, near 10 knots. This dry air,
in combination with potentially moderate wind shear, should keep
development slow. The storm will be over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream, so the extra heat energy available to the storm will help
counteract to dry air and wind shear, though. The official NHC forecast
of a high-end 70 mph Tropical Storm Arthur on Friday, as the storm makes
its closest approach to North Carolina, is a reasonable one. A much
weaker storm is also possible, if dry air and wind shear continue to
interfere with development this week.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 08:02 AM
Post: #26
RE: TD#1
10m Wind-HWRF

[Image: hwrf_mslp_uv850_01L_24.png]

[Image: hwrf_mslp_uv850_01L_25.png]

[Image: hwrf_mslp_uv850_01L_26.png]

[Image: hwrf_mslp_uv850_01L_27.png]

[Image: hwrf_mslp_uv850_01L_28.png]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 08:32 AM
Post: #27
RE: TD#1
Should I chase it ?

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 08:38 AM
Post: #28
RE: TD#1
(07-01-2014 08:32 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  Should I chase it ?




can I go ? Big Grin
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 09:19 AM
Post: #29
RE: TD#1
If anybody has any trouble with the new site feel free to email me at [email protected] Gmail

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
07-01-2014, 09:26 AM
Post: #30
RE: TD#1
[Image: GOES14072014182Enc9IV.jpg]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)