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HURRICANE ARTHUR
07-01-2014, 09:27 AM
Post: #31
RE: TD#1
recon track for this afternoon

[Image: 20140701N1_track.jpg]

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07-01-2014, 09:30 AM (This post was last modified: 07-01-2014 09:30 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #32
RE: TD#1
[Image: gfs_ir_us_12.png][Image: gfs_apcpn_us_32.png]

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07-01-2014, 09:32 AM
Post: #33
RE: TD#1
[Image: WUNIDS_map?station=AMX&brand=wui&...;label=you]
[Image: WUNIDS_map?station=MLB&brand=wui&...;label=you]

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07-01-2014, 09:48 AM
Post: #34
RE: TD#1
This may be the highlight of the season...

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07-01-2014, 09:59 AM (This post was last modified: 07-01-2014 10:06 AM by Batt2fd.)
Post: #35
RE: TD#1
TS ARTHUR

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST
OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION
SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
www.MyFloridaHurricane.Info
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07-01-2014, 10:06 AM
Post: #36
RE: TD#1
[Image: lg_aatrack.jpg]
Track from Bay News 9 in Tampa.

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07-01-2014, 10:09 AM
Post: #37
RE: Tropical Storm ARTHUR
11AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective
organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous
advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained
wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama
Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.

After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur
appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion
of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the
previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the
trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward
from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region
of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost
identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the
confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase
in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States
is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over
the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward
the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is
forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed
guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.

Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to
gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the
cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,
latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus
outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during
the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could
already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm
sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady
strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by
72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then
slightly higher after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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07-01-2014, 10:46 AM
Post: #38
RE: Tropical Storm ARTHUR
Exciting start to Hurricane Season..... Lets see how much oomph Arthur can muster.. Looking very healthy currently..
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07-01-2014, 11:08 AM
Post: #39
RE: Tropical Storm ARTHUR
(07-01-2014 09:48 AM)Alex Wrote:  This may be the highlight of the season...
I hope not or I am banning you Tongue

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07-01-2014, 12:18 PM
Post: #40
RE: Tropical Storm ARTHUR
[Image: gn7jLBM.gif]

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