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Tropical Storm Erika
08-25-2015, 04:16 PM
Post: #11
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
5pm

Quote: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and
this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle
of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has
been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous
forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future
intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates
increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the
GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the
forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,
however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.
The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the
previous one and is close to the model consensus.

A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues
to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the
next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is
significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a
weaker system being farther south and west and those having a
stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one
and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.

Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the
next advisory package.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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08-25-2015, 04:34 PM
Post: #12
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
James Spann
Quote: OPIC: TROPICS: Tropical Storm Erika is packing sustained winds of 45
mph, and will be near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday. A decent
chance this becomes a hurricane over the Bahamas early next week; it
remains to be seen if this will impact the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Just too
early to call for now.
[Image: 173521W5_NL_sm-600x480.gif]

[Image: gefs_AL05_current1-600x450.png]

For now odds are low that this will be a Gulf of Mexico storm.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa
tomorrow, and some slow development is possible over the next few days.

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08-25-2015, 04:35 PM
Post: #13
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
If anybody has any trouble logging in feel free to email me @ gmail Thanks Hardcoreweather

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08-25-2015, 04:59 PM
Post: #14
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-25-2015 04:35 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  If anybody has any trouble logging in feel free to email me @ gmail Thanks Hardcoreweather

testing testing 456

/stupid
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08-25-2015, 05:24 PM
Post: #15
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
(08-25-2015 04:34 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  James Spann
Quote:
For now odds are low that this will be a Gulf of Mexico storm.
For now, looks like a Titusville/Jax skimmer - but wait 3 days! Huh

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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08-25-2015, 07:29 PM
Post: #16
Tropical Storm Erika
Creeping closing and closer to a fla hit or Clip.
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08-26-2015, 04:16 AM (This post was last modified: 08-26-2015 04:16 AM by Smitter.)
Post: #17
Tropical Storm Erika
No posts in the last 8 hours? With a possible Fla Landfall as a Cat2+
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08-26-2015, 05:05 AM
Post: #18
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
5AM
Quote: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

Convection has increased near and to the east of the estimated
center position of Erika during the past few hours. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates remain T2.5/35 kt, and that is the
intensity for this advisory. The central pressure of 1003 mb is
based on a dropsonde from a NOAA aircraft that reported 1004 mb and
25 kt of wind south of the apparent surface center.

The intensity forecast remains very uncertain. Despite the recent
improvement in the convective pattern, the statistical guidance
shows only very gradual strengthening during the forecast period
due to 15 to 25 kt of westerly to northwesterly shear. Another
major negative factor in the SHIPS model is the weakening of the
vortex in the GFS forecast. The HWRF is also very slow to
strengthen Erika in the short term, but continues to show
intensification late in the period. The latest ECMWF run shows a
more robust cyclone in its latest forecast, while the GFS, as
mentioned above, weakens the vortex to a wave in 2 to 3 days. Given
this uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains close to the intensity
consensus and shows very slow intensification in the first 2
to 3 days followed by steadier strengthening at days 4 and 5.

The initial motion estimate is 280/16. Erika will be steered
westward to west-northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge to the north, and the track model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. After that time,
the track model guidance shows increasing spread with a lack of run
to run consistency. For example, the latest run of the GFS takes a
much weaker Erika west-northwestward while the new ECMWF run is
stronger with Erika with a track farther to the right. Overall, the
track guidance envelop has shifted a little to the left this cycle,
with the majority of the aids showing a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion as the cyclone nears the western edge of the
ridge by day 5. The NHC forecast follows this trend and is close to
the HWRF and a little to the right of the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble
mean at days 3 through 5. This track is left of the TVCA consensus,
which has been pulled to the right by the outlier GFDL model this
cycle. Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.

New tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern
Caribbean by their respective Meteorological Services.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.5N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 21.4N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 26.0N 79.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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08-26-2015, 06:20 AM (This post was last modified: 08-26-2015 07:50 AM by Smitter.)
Post: #19
Tropical Storm Erika
Center a tad south from the looks of it.

Looks like a Herbert's Box Special
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08-26-2015, 06:45 AM
Post: #20
RE: Tropical Storm Erika
[Image: storm_05.gif]

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