Tropical Storm Erika

[alexfl73]

I'm in south fla too and other than Chan 7 news, no one is giving it much coverage. Get a feeling it will start getting coverage tonite. Time to test my generator!


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[Smitter]

11 Am is out... Showing a Cat 1 hitting Fla....

[ROLLTIDE]

11am

Quote: 00
WTNT45 KNHC 261446
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

Deep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past
24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
not changed very much. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
the center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm
activity due to moderate northwesterly shear. The aircraft has
measured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.

Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is
expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. The upper low
is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72
hours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance. After
that time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more
favorable upper-level environment. The official forecast lies
between the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance.
An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is
that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and
interaction with the Greater Antilles. The amount of strengthening
on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the
the preceding unfavorable shear.

The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt. Erika is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days
to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.
The track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast
period, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger
storm northwestward much sooner. The new NHC track is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of
the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement
with the Florida State Superensemble. One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

[miamilisa]

I am beginning to doubt her survival ability.

[mavidal]

Morning all, I have that feeling this will be a so fla storm, animals got real clingy to us today, and no birds around. At least it won't be an andrew. If your down here, start getting ready now, beat the crowds and keep your nerves in check. This afternoon for me is a gas run and what few supplies we do need as I have followed my list and have everything we need.

[Jutta]

Where in Florida please Live in Northeast Jax Bch.

(08-26-2015 10:10 AM)Smitter Wrote:  11 Am is out... Showing a Cat 1 hitting Fla....

[mavidal]

South Florida, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach

[Smitter]

(08-26-2015 11:07 AM)Jutta Wrote:  Where in Florida please Live in Northeast Jax Bch.

(08-26-2015 10:10 AM)Smitter Wrote:  11 Am is out... Showing a Cat 1 hitting Fla....

Click on this link its the NHC Hurricane 5day Graph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...l#contents

[OPHarbor]

(08-26-2015 11:11 AM)Smitter Wrote:  

(08-26-2015 11:07 AM)Jutta Wrote:  Where in Florida please Live in Northeast Jax Bch.

(08-26-2015 10:10 AM)Smitter Wrote:  11 Am is out... Showing a Cat 1 hitting Fla....

Click on this link its the NHC Hurricane 5day Graph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics...l#contents

I'm in Vilano Beach (St Auggie), and watching carefully. That being said, I think that this will be a rain event for us, but the tornado threat is probably the biggest concern. I am still calling a Cocoa Beach landfall, but my confidence is waining with each model run. The CMC has pretty consitently forecast Erika up the Gulf coast similar to Charlie and I won't rule it out. If I were anyone on the Florida Peninsula, I would take this seriously and have your plan in place.

[NedESU21]

I live in Stuart and work in Jupiter. This was all everyone was talking about on the news and in the community. Meetings @ work for Monday are already being rescheduled. I'm shocked to hear further south it wasn't on the news. This was all they talked about this morning (evacuation routes, flood zones, shelters). I still think it's to far out for the media to hype it up like this. My friend went to Publix yesterday evening and said they were running low on water and canned food.... Sigh welcome to FL.