Tropical Storm Erika

[ROLLTIDE]

[Alex]

Looks awfully fishy to me. I'm sure it will be a major hurricane too.

[ROLLTIDE]

Should I rent a plane and stream live from Bermuda?

[Alex]

Quote:Should I rent a plane and stream live from Bermuda?

Bermuda is where all the action is every year

Now Code Red

Quote:ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Danny, located near the Leeward
Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[OPHarbor]

I got a friend going to the DR on Sunday. He keeps asking me about this. What think everyone? I'm telling him I think it'll be OK but we should know more by Thursday. He's got till Friday to cancel.

[Her-icane]

(08-24-2015 02:48 PM)OPHarbor Wrote:  I got a friend going to the DR on Sunday. He keeps asking me about this. What think everyone? I'm telling him I think it'll be OK but we should know more by Thursday. He's got till Friday to cancel.

Looking at Masters blog and what we can see thus far, looks like a replay of Danny...but too early to tell...it's now Erika...

Quote: 98L in Central Atlantic could become Erika
In the Central Atlantic about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 98L appears poised to become the next tropical depression of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, as it steams westward at a rapid 20 mph. Satellite loops on Monday morning showed that 98L had a well-developed spin and some low level spiral bands, but heavy thunderstorm activity was limited, due to dry air. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis offered by the University of Wisconsin shows plenty of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air will potentially impede development of 98L throughout the week. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are favorable for development, near 27°C, and will warm to 28°C by Wednesday. The 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model diagnosed moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over 98L, and predicted the shear would remain in the moderate range through at least Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 90% to 98L. Steering currents for 98L are very similar to what Danny experienced, and the 8 pm EDT (0Z) Monday run of the GFS and European models showed 98L taking a track into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday night, and into the Southeast Bahamas by Saturday. Wind shear will rise to a high 15 - 25 knots by Thursday as 98L brushes the Northeast Caribbean, which should slow development or cause weakening. A trough of low pressure capable of turning 98L to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, but it is uncertain at this time whether or not 98L will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough. If so, 98L could represent a long-range threat to Bermuda or Canada next week. If not, then the Caribbean, Bahamas, and U.S. East Coast might be a target; it’s too early to narrow down the possibilities.

[Smitter]

Tropical Storm Erika has formed

[ROLLTIDE]

James Spann

Quote: Erika is in a favorable environment for intensification with an
envelope of moisture, low shear and warm water. That should continue
for at least 48 hours before it encounters some shear. It is expected
to become a strong tropical storm, but could become a hurricane, as
depicted by the HWRF model.



There is some uncertainty in track, but there is a good chance this
could affect the United States. If it is weaker, it could be shunted
south toward the Gulf of Mexico. A stronger storm would be pulled
further north and could be near the Bahamas by the end of the wekeend,
with a threat to the East Coast.

Erika will be interesting to watch.

[ROLLTIDE]

[OPHarbor]

Could there be a bigger split in models? My two favorites (CMC and HWRF) split the Florida peninsula. I'm hoping that Erika doesn't decide to split the two. I see the ridge to the north moving east creating a weakness for Erika to move into (HWRF). At least that's what we're hoping for anyway.