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TD 12/KATE
11-09-2015, 08:14 AM
Post: #1
Question TD 12/KATE
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015

Deep convection has increased to the north and east of the
depression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates
now T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.
Based on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt
depression. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning
and should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's
intensity. Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support
some strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before
it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western
Atlantic by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS
and LGEM models.

The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and
toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate
is 295/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move around the western
periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western
Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later
today and north-northwest by tonight. While the dynamical models
all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of
sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the
simpler BAM trajectory models. Therefore, the official forecast has
been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the
first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions
observed in the dynamical model fields. After 36 hours, the BAM and
dynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official
forecast is closer to the consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.6N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.7N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 30.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 33.4N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

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11-10-2015, 07:40 AM
Post: #2
RE: TD 12/KATE
4AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015
400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015

Kate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous
advisory. The center is located beneath a small central dense
overcast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers
of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB. A NOAA P-3
aircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the
center it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and
surface winds between 40-45 kt. In addition, the central pressure
has fallen to 1003 mb. The plane will be making a few more passes
through the center during the next couple of hours.

Although vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next
couple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C
within the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models
indicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane
strength by 36 hours, if not sooner. After 36 hours, the shear is
expected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to
become post-tropical. One significant change on this cycle is that
the 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show
Kate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic
in a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical
low. Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours,
showing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic
on days 3-5.

Kate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward
and accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in
the mid-latitude westerlies. Kate is likely to slow down around
day 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster
northeastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5.
The new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous
forecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion
beyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 31.0N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 33.9N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 36.6N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 39.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0600Z 43.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 53.0N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

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