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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
05-27-2016, 04:02 PM
Post: #21
RE: TD #2
Saw the headline on the PNJ, and here is the first advisory:

Quote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON FORMS OFF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of South
Carolina from the Savannah River northeastward to Little River
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. A reduction of the forward speed is expected by Saturday
night as the system nears the coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

AARoads
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05-27-2016, 04:05 PM
Post: #22
RE: TD #2
5pm

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
pressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,
South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a
well-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase in
convection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone
and advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMR
surface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for
this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge
to the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain
oriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours
or so, which should keep the depression moving in a general
west-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,
a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the
south-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,
resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a
sharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the
coast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast
of North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good
agreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in
forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus
model TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the
ECMWF model.

The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface
temperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before
moving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are
27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving
into weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is
expected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to
landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model
through 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model
after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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05-27-2016, 06:37 PM (This post was last modified: 05-27-2016 07:07 PM by Batt2fd.)
Post: #23
RE: TD #2
[Image: models_storm1.jpg]




[Image: hurr_small.gif]
www.MyFloridaHurricane.Info
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05-27-2016, 08:26 PM (This post was last modified: 05-27-2016 08:40 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #24
RE: TD #2
[Image: clark2latest.png][Image: clarki2latest.png]

AL, 02, 2016052800, , BEST, 0, 288N, 752W, 30, 1009, TD
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05-28-2016, 06:43 AM
Post: #25
RE: TD #2
5AM

Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday.
The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center
due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact
that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30
kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to
strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the
warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not
favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the
intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the
winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be
interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or
sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low.

Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite
imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at
12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge
of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the
cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a
short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force
the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The
NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it
follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The
NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South
Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 29.9N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 31.0N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 32.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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05-28-2016, 08:56 AM
Post: #26
RE: TD #2
I will be not intercepting this storm Smile
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05-28-2016, 08:57 AM
Post: #27
RE: TD #2
I will not be intercepting this storm Smile
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05-28-2016, 10:01 AM
Post: #28
RE: TD #2
11AM
Quote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Satellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection
has increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's
circulation since the previous advisory. However, the depression
remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level
winds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR
surface winds of at least 30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates
were also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is
being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

Microwave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the
cyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six
hours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a
12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did
quite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both
models turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by
a steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the
cyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC
forecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory
track through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward
initial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend
of the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond.

The depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the
Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer
convective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf
waters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which
implies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by
those cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly
vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to
more than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is
expected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible
that the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the
Gulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening
just before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS
intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 30.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 31.3N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 32.4N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1200Z 33.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 34.4N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 34.9N 75.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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05-28-2016, 11:04 AM (This post was last modified: 05-28-2016 11:35 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #29
RE: TD #2
JM

Quote: TD 2 Expected to Become Tropical Storm Bonnie as it Crosses the Gulf Stream


By: Jeff Masters , 3:27 PM GMT on May 28, 2016




Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the coast of South Carolina as Tropical Depression Two chugs northwest at 13 mph towards the Southeast U.S. coast. Radar imagery from Charleston, South Carolina showed heavy rains from TD 2 had reached the coast late Saturday morning, and heavy rains will affect most of the coast of South Carolina by late Saturday afternoon. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed that TD 2 had a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, which had increased in areal coverage only slightly since Friday. Strong upper level winds from the southeast were creating a high 20 knots of wind shear over TD 2 on Saturday morning, keeping the storm's heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found top sustained winds of 35 mph in a small region near the storm's center on Saturday morning. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 2's center were about 26°C (79°F)--marginally warm enough to support a tropical storm. A large area of dry continental air lay to the west of TD 2, and this dry air was interfering with development.

[Image: sst-avhrr-may27.jpg]
Figure 1. Ocean temperatures off the Southeast U.S. coast for the period May 25 - May 27, 2016, as sensed by AVHRR satellite instruments. On Saturday afternoon, TD 2 will be traversing the warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 82°F) waters of the Gulf Stream. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applies Physics Laboratory.

A heavy rain threat for the Southeast U.S. coast
On Saturday, TD 2 will be traversing warm Gulf Stream waters of 27 - 28°C (81 - 82°F), and these warm waters should provide enough of a boost to TD 2 to strengthen it into Tropical Storm Bonnie. However, there is dry air to the west of TD 2, and the SHIPS model predicted on Saturday morning that wind shear would rise to 20 - 25 knots on Saturday evening though Sunday. These conditions will likely keep TD 2 from becoming anything stronger than a 45-mph tropical storm. In their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Charleston, South Carolina the highest odds of any city on the coast of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph: 43%. Heavy rain is the main concern from TD 2, and heavy rains of 2 - 4" are likely along the coast of South Carolina through Monday, with 1 - 3" amounts likely along the southeast coast of North Carolina through Tuesday. Water temperatures off the southeast coast of North Carolina are quite cool--near 24° C (75°F), so TD 2 should weaken as it progresses to the northeast along the coast on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters


[Image: 2016AL02_MPSATWND_201605281200_SWHR.GIF]

[Image: 2016AL02_1KMIRIMG_201605281103.GIF]

Storm CYCLONE: Observed By Air Force #307
Storm #02 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 39KT (44.9mph 72.2km/h) In 038 Quadrant At NM 12:06:30Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 35.1KT (40.4mph 65.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 37 KT 312 / 71 NM 13:32:00ZSLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB;
Date/Time of Recon Report: ‎5‎/‎28‎/‎2016‎ ‎08‎:‎09‎:‎00 (Sat, 28 May 2016 13:09:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 29° 53' N 078° 06' W (29.9°N 78.1°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 925mb: 808m (Normal: 762)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 19KT (21.85MPH 35.2km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 36nm (41.4miles) From Center At Bearing 192°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 18KT (20.7mph 33.3km/h) From 306°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 23nm (26.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 200°
Minimum pressure: 1013mb (29.91in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 925mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 6nm* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
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05-28-2016, 03:39 PM
Post: #30
TS BONNIE
NHC just tweeted that T.D. 2 was upgraded to T.S. Bonnie.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/...3676747780

The companion advisory:
Quote:BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 79.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 31.1
North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the northwest
near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a
decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on
Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight as
Bonnie moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Gradual
weakening is forecast on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

AARoads
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