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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
05-28-2016, 04:06 PM
Post: #31
RE: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
WORST looking tropical storm ever !!!!
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05-28-2016, 04:06 PM
Post: #32
RE: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
5PM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

A 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in
the northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep
convection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance
mission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and
persisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5
hours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston
and Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between
15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind
vectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded
to Tropical Storm Bonnie.

The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level
center near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud
canopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has
essentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC
model guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning
toward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a
deep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and
Beaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a
mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the
Mississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the
ridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie
is forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South
Carolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast
by 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models.

Bonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream
sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler
shelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do
not appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on
rather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of
South Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at
least 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant
intensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction
and the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening,
although there could be some convective rain bands over water
producing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and follows the Decay-SHIPS model.

The primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 31.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 31.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 33.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 34.5N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 35.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 35.7N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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05-28-2016, 09:54 PM
Post: #33
RE: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
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05-29-2016, 06:02 AM
Post: #34
RE: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
ZZZZZZZ
Quote: TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Shortly after Bonnie reached its peak intensity of 40 kt, water
vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a surge of
40-60 kt upper-level winds passed over the center of the cyclone,
which stripped away all of the associated deep convection. In
addition, an intrusion of dry air has inhibited the redevelopment
of significant deep convection near the center. Based on the erosion
of the convective pattern, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt
for this advisory.

Radar and satellite imagery suggest that Bonnie is now moving due
north or 360/07 kt. Bonnie has become a more shallow tropical
cyclone due to the loss of all deep convection, and the system is
expected to be steered generally northward around the western
periphery of a low-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. This
should bring the center of Bonnie near or just inland of the South
Carolina coast this afternoon or tonight. After that, Bonnie is
expected to move slowly northeastward around the northern side of
the Bermuda-Azores High and emerge out over the Atlantic by 36 to
48 hours, and continue moving northeastward or east-northeastward
through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely
follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.

Continued strong southerly vertical wind shear, along with dry air
in the mid- and upper-levels and proximity to land, should prevent
any significant restrengthening from occurring. However, there
could be intermittent bursts of convection near the center of
Bonnie, keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm until landfall
occurs later today. By 48 hours and beyond, environmental
conditions worsen, and Bonnie is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low pressure system by 72 hours, if not sooner.

The primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which
is already occurring over much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia,
and portions of southeastern North Carolina. These rains will
gradually spread northeastward along the mid-Atlantic region over
the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 32.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 32.6N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 33.3N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 33.5N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/0600Z 33.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 35.2N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 35.8N 74.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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