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TROPICAL STORM COLIN
06-05-2016, 06:49 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2016 07:00 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #21
RE: INVEST 93L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area located near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Cuba.
Surface data show that pressures are falling in the area, and that
winds to near tropical storm force are occurring over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to
be favorable for additional development, and this system is likely
to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by tonight or on
Monday while it moves north-northeastward toward the Florida
Peninsula.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next few days.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system. Tropical storm conditions could occur along a portion
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula as early as Monday
afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Brown

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06-05-2016, 08:07 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2016 08:27 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #22
RE: INVEST 93L
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06-05-2016, 09:40 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2016 10:15 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #23
RE: INVEST 93L
Sudduth

Quote:Florida in line for impacts from tropical system

By Mark Sudduth | June 5, 2016 - 10:31 AM | 93L, Atlantic Basin
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[Image: 93l_6_5_16.jpg]
NHC indicating a high chance of development in the red area, meaning impacts for Florida early this coming week
It looks like we are on our way to having another tropical system develop and it’s only June 5th. This time, we are looking at the southern Gulf of Mexico where a broad area of low pressure is taking shape, trying to organize enough to become a tropical depression or maybe even a tropical storm by later today.
The NHC indicates a 90% chance of this happening and the Hurricane Hunters will be flying out in to the system this afternoon for a close up look. At that point we’ll know for sure what is going on in the region just north of the Yucatan peninsula, extending in to the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean Sea.
Water temps in the area are plenty warm and it will not surprise me at all to see this get named – if so, it would be “Colin”.
Now, as I said yesterday, before folks in Florida get too nervous about all of this, let’s take a look at something very important: upper level winds. I think this is what keeps the system from becoming very strong. Looking at the latest 200mb wind forecast from the GFS computer model, we can clearly see very strong winds blowing across the top of the would-be storm at the 36 hour mark. This will likely keep the system from being very symmetrical in shape and with that, it should be rather lopsided with most of the wind and rain on the east side of the low pressure center.

http://hurricanetrack.com/wp-content/upl...6_5_16.jpg
GFS 200mb chart from the 6Z run showing the low pressure area at 36 hours. Notice the strong southerly to southwest winds blowing across the storm. This “shear” is not favorable for strengthening but could aid in severe weather for Florida
http://hurricanetrack.com/wp-content/upl...6_5_16.jpg

TD 3

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]















































000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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06-05-2016, 10:14 AM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2016 10:15 AM by Nolaken.)
Post: #24
RE: INVEST 93L
000
WTNT33 KNHC 051457
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the coast of northeastern Florida through southern
South Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
later today through Monday. On this track, the center of the
depression is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend
area Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible
across the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and
Florida.

STORM SURGE...The combination of the storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground
if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tida cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Serive forecast office.

WIND...Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon.

TORNADOES...Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across
portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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06-05-2016, 10:23 AM
Post: #25
RE: INVEST 93L
.
.
AL, 03, 2016060512, , BEST, 0, 217N, 880W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, 0, 0, THREE
.
.
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06-05-2016, 11:32 AM
Post: #26
RE: INVEST 93L
Quote: 000
WTNT43 KNHC 051501
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula
overnight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this
morning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation
has become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a
tropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located in
a band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate
south to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25
to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis
for the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's
intensity this afternoon.

The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind
shear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.
Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase
in winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC
forecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast
of Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over
the western Atlantic in about 3 days.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depression
is forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster
forward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to
upper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement during
first 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone should
enter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion
over the north Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
..

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06-05-2016, 12:21 PM (This post was last modified: 06-05-2016 12:22 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #27
RE: TD#3
Henson for JM

Quote: TD 3 Forms in SE Gulf; Tropical Storm Warnings on Florida Gulf Coast


By: Bob Henson , 5:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2016


A large swath of coastline from the Florida panhandle to the state’s west coast was placed under a tropical storm warning on Sunday morning by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) with the commencement of advisories for newly declared Tropical Depression 3, expected to become Tropical Storm Colin by Sunday night. The tropical storm warning extends from Indian Pass (southeast of Panama City) to Englewood (between Tampa and Fort Myers). As of 11 AM EDT Sunday, the center of circulation for TD 3 was located just off the north coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, or about 550 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Virtually all of the shower and thunderstorm activity (convection) associated with TD 3 was positioned more than 100 miles east of this center, over the very warm waters of the Yucatan Channel, the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico, and the northwest Caribbean (see Figure 1 below). The convection was broadening and intensifying on Sunday, suggesting that TD 3 is approaching tropical storm strength.

[Image: TD3-viz-1607Z-6.5.16.jpg]
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of TD 3.

[Image: TD3-tracking-15Z-6.5.16.jpg]
Figure 2. WU tracking map for Tropical Depression 3 based on the forecast issued by NOAA/NHC at 11 AM EDT Sunday, June 5, 2016.

The wide extent of TD 3’s convection could have set the stage for a large and powerful hurricane if the system had a long time to organize under favorable conditions. However, larger tropical depressions tend to take longer than smaller ones to consolidate their energy, and TD 3 will not have a great deal of time before it moves inland. Models have been quite consistent in making TD 3 a weak or moderate tropical storm prior to landfall, including HWRF, the top-performing intensity model of 2015.

A broad southwest flow at upper levels will channel TD 3 toward the upper west coast of Florida, with landfall possible as soon as Monday evening, perhaps in the sparsely populated Big Bend section of Florida’s coast. There is high confidence on this general track, with the large-scale features driving it already in place and model guidance holding firm. The large southward extent of the tropical storm warning reflects the storm’s marked asymmetry, which will keep the heaviest thunderstorms and the highest winds well to the east of the center. There is a chance that the low-level center of circulation of TD 3 could reorganize beneath the heaviest convection, which might result in a landfall closer to the southern part of the warning area. However, any such shift would result in a shorter track over water, which would give TD 3 even less time to organize over the Gulf. Hurricane hunters from the U.S. Air Force were en route to TD 3 early Sunday afternoon; the data they collect should give us a better sense of TD 3’s structure and its potential for strengthening.

[Image: TD3-IR-1600Z-6.5.16.jpg]
Figure 3. Infrared NOAA GOES image of TD 3 as of 1600Z (noon EDT) Sunday, June 5, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Potential impacts in Florida
High tides on Florida’s west coast are at their highest values of the month because of this weekend’s full moon, so even a weak Tropical Storm Colin could produce noticeable storm surge flooding. NHC is predicting that water heights at high tide along the immediate coast could reach 1 to 3 feet above ground level from Indian Pass south to Tampa Bay and 1 to 2 feet above ground level from Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay.

Regardless of its exact track and strength, TD 3 will bring very heavy rains across much of Florida, especially on Sunday night and Monday. There is some risk of nocturnal tornadoes over South Florida on Sunday night, as southeasterly low-level flow is overtopped by stronger southwest flow at upper levels. Here and throughout the state, convection will be fueled by a swath of extremely rich tropical moisture moving north from the Caribbean. On Monday, the bulk of the Florida peninsula will be swaddled by an air mass with precipitable water between 2.00” and 3.00”. These PW amounts could match or exceed record values for late spring and early summer at several locations. (Precipitable water, or PW, is the amount of moisture in the atmosphere in the form of water vapor above a given point.) Rainfall amounts are likely to be in the 4” - 6” range on the right-hand side of TD 3’s track across central and/or northern Florida, with isolated 6” - 10” amounts possible.

[Image: TD3-rainfall-1534Z-6.5.16.jpg]
Figure 4. Projected rainfall for the period 8 AM EDT Sunday, June 5, 2016, through 8 AM Wednesday, June 8. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

After the Florida landfall, what next?
Nearly all models are predicting that TD 3 will strengthen beyond its peak intensity in the Gulf after it emerges off the east coast of Florida, so we could be dealing with a Tropical Storm Colin roughly paralleling the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. Here again, the lopsided structure of TD 3 will tend to keep the heaviest thunderstorms and strongest winds on the offshore (southeast) side of the center, which would minimize any potential impact from Georgia to North Carolina even if the center were to hug the coastline. Steering flow around a large eastern U.S. trough means there is very high confidence in the overall northeastward direction of motion. By Wednesday, the system is expected to be shooting northeastward between Bermuda and Nova Scotia as it rapidly evolves into a post-tropical storm.

I’ll be back with a brief update on Sunday night should TD 3 be upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin, with our next full update midday Monday. One other note: residents of the mid-Atlantic should be on alert for potentially severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has a enhanced risk of severe weather (see map below) extending from central North Carolina to central New Jersey, including the Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia metro areas. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms.

Bob Henson
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06-05-2016, 01:58 PM
Post: #28
RE: TD#3
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06-05-2016, 02:09 PM
Post: #29
RE: TD#3
I'm betting that track shifts east a bit - looking at the west Gulf air flow.

Roll me out in the cold rain and snow ...

And brave the storm to come,
For it surely looks like rain.
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06-05-2016, 02:49 PM
Post: #30
RE: TD#3
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