TROPICAL STORM COLIN

[Her-icane]

---

Mike Hassel ‏@FloridaOnTheGo 3h3 hours ago North Lido Beach
The sky was all pretty, and then......pic.twitter.com/qIy8sTyx2b




10:20 AM - 5 Jun 2016 · Details

[Batt2fd]

Recon is not finding much...

[ROLLTIDE]

4pm

Quote: ROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The depression has changed little in organization since this
morning. The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band
of deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity has been held at 30
kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently
sampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.

Although environmental conditions are not very conducive for
strengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday. The NHC
forecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest
deepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or
Monday. The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
over the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving northward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.
The depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern
Texas and a ridge over the western Atlantic. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement through 48 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in
deep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.

The primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding
from heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.3N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 25.1N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.0N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 08/1800Z 41.9N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 48.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 53.5N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[pcbjr]

Slight east as suspected:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gra...p_3W.shtml

[Batt2fd]

Now TS Colin

---

Looks like the track turning east a little bit

[Nolaken]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 052135
TCUAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Depression Three is now a tropical storm
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Batt2fd]

---

---

8 PM Track

[Her-icane]

Sudduth

Quote: NHC upgrades TD 3 to tropical storm Colin – rain and some coastal flooding biggest issues

By Mark Sudduth | June 5, 2016 - 7:28 PM | Atlantic Basin
Leave a comment
Cropped image of NHC track map showing TS Colin forecast points and the TS warning area along the west coast of FL
The 2016 hurricane season is seemingly off to quite a start with the 3rd named storm of the year (Alex back in January of all months and Bonnie last week) forming in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. I will talk more about what this may or may not mean for the rest of the season in a future blog post later this week. For now, let’s focus on Colin and what Floridians can expect.
First off, this is not going to be a big wind event, so get that notion out of your head now. Do not focus on “oh, it’s just a tropical storm”. We have to move away from that. No one EVER says, “oh, it’s just a small rattle snake that bit me”. Well maybe they do, but you get the point. Any poisonous snake is likely to be treated with respect and even fear. While we don”t have to fear tropical storms, they need to be understood (like snakes) and respected. That being said, let’s look at the current situation.
The latest info from the NHC tells us that top winds are 40 mph according to report from the Hurricane Hunter crew that flew recon earlier today. The forecast calls for only modest strengthening before Colin reaches Florida later tomorrow night or early Tuesday, most likely near the Big Bend area of Florida.
Let me be very clear. This forecast is for the CENTER of the storm, not for the entire storm and all its bad weather. The advisories give us information on the center forecast in latitude and longitude, with additional information throughout the rest of the package. So even though the center is moving onshore well north of Tampa, for example, heavy rain, squalls, storm surge flooding and tropical storm force winds are likely for Tampa and vicinity. Obviously, no one knows precisely where the worst weather will be, we can only rely on coastal radar when the storm gets closer to help with that. For now, if you are within the tropical storm warning area (Indian Pass to Enlgewood along the FL west coast) then you need to be ready for bad weather, it’s that simple. This is not a hurricane with a defined eyewall which is typically where the worst conditions are felt. In this case, the impact will be spread out over a good chunk of Florida from parts of the panhandle on down the peninsula, including perhaps a bit of south Florida proper.
Weather prediction center rainfall map showing impact from Colin on Southeast U.S.
I have included the WPC rain forecast for the next 72 hours and you can clearly see the threat here. Torrential rain, possibly wind driven at times, will make travel tough and even dangerous at times. For the love of Pete, slow down on the highways and biways out there! I am serious, traffic deaths and injuries because of rain soaked roads are 100% preventable. Colin is headed your way with plenty of rain, take notice and slow down if you’re driving through the region.
After Florida, the storm is forecast to emerge in to the Atlantic somewhere off the Georgia coast. This means heavy rain, some wind and minor coastal impacts for GA, SC and extreme southeast coastal NC. I will address these areas more tomorrow once we get a better idea of how well Colin will hold together as it crosses Florida.
So that’s it for now. We have plenty to keep up with in the coming days. I will not be traveling to Florida for the storm, it’s not quite the classic structure and impact that would warrant our specialized equipment – which is better suited for possible hurricane events later in the season. So I will watch from my office in Wilmington, NC where things could get interesting depending on how close Colin tracks to the NC coast. I’ll have more tomorrow morning bright and early.
M. Sudduth 7:20 PM ET June 5

---

---

.
.
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic2h2 hours ago

Colin should produce 1-3 ft of storm surge flooding above ground level along parts of the Florida west coast. More: http://hurricanes.gov
.

[Her-icane]

News 6 (central FL)

Quote:Central Fla. counties under flood watch as Tropical Storm Colin moves north
Tropical storm watch in effect for Flagler County

By Danny Treanor - Meteorologist , Troy Blevins - Online Editor
Posted: 9:31 AM, June 05, 2016Updated: 7:58 PM, June 05, 2016

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical depression No. 3 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin, which was located about 460 miles southwest of Tampa with winds of 40 mph and moving north at 9 mph.

A flood watch is in effect beginning 4 a.m. Monday until 12 a.m. Tuesday for multiple Central Florida counties, including Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Sumter and Volusia counties.
A tropical storm watch has also been issued from 5 p.m. Sunday until further notice for Flagler County, officials said.
The storm intensified into a tropical storm Sunday. It is expected to hit the west coast of Florida Monday night.
This disturbance will continue to pump extra moisture into the atmosphere, increasing the chance of rain Sunday to 60 percent and up to 100 percent for Monday. Tuesday also looks to be very wet.
Winds up to 50 mph should be expected along with rain amounts of 5 to 8 inches. Flooding is possible.
[RELATED: Gov. Rick Scott urges Floridians to prepare for potential tropical system]
Additionally, the twisting of the air could produce some tornadoes.
Temperatures will be suppressed due to cloud cover.
A more normal pattern will return by Wednesday.

---

News 35 (Central FL)

Quote:Tropical Storm Colin forms in Gulf of Mexico

LAKE MARY, Fla. (WOFL Fox 35) - The National Weather Service says Tropical Storm Colin has formed in the Gulf of Mexico.

Officials said there will be a risk of severe weather and possible tornadoes for Monday, along with periods of heavy rain and potential flooding in low lying areas of Central Florida.

A flood watch is in effect for the entire area for Monday with rainfall totals of 4-6 inches expected. Heaviest rain and severe weather threat will occur during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Since the storm is moving ashore along the west coast of Florida there will not be any coastal flooding concerns along our east coast.

---

News 13 (Central FL)

Quote: Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Colin heads for Florida coast

By Mallory Nicholls, Meteorologist
Last Updated: Sunday, June 05, 2016, 8:07 PM

ORLANDO -- Tropical Depression Three formed Sunday and has now become Tropical Storm Colin. The storm is moving towards the Florida peninsula.

• Tropical Storm Colin currently packing 40 mph sustained winds
• The current track puts it in the Florida Big Bend area by Monday afternoon
• Florida could see flooding in some areas of up to 5 inches, even up to 8 inches in isolated areas
  

Some cities and counties have already opened sand bag locations.
All schools that are still holding classes are open on Monday.

As of 8 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 87.8 West.

• DISTANCE
  • 460 mi SW of Tampa
  • 541 mi SW of Orlando
  • 470 mi SSW of Apalachicola

• News 13 Hurricane resources
• INTERACTIVE: Online Tracking Map

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Altahama Sound to Flagler Beach.
LATEST ADVISORY
As of 8 p.m., Colin is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through Monday. On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to approach the coast of the Florida Big Bend area Monday afternoon.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before Colin reaches the coast of Florida.

• WEATHER ON THE GO: Download the News 13+ app and get StormTracker 13 & Safety Net alerts wherever you are.
  
• GET WEATHER ALERTS: Sign up to receive weather text alerts from News 13.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Rainfall: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and Florida.
Storm surge: The combination of the storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

• Indian Pass to Tampa Bay: 1 to 3 ft.
• Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay: 1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf is possible along the Florida East Coast, within the tropical storm watch area. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday.

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible Monday afternoon across portions of Florida and far southern Georgia.

SEOC elevates activation status to Level 2
Governor Rick Scott is reminding Florida residents, visitors and businesses to remain vigilant and prepare for possible severe weather. The State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee elevated its activation status to Level 2 as Florida prepares for possible impacts from Colin.
"As we continue to closely monitor this tropical depression, Floridians should remain vigilant and have an emergency plan for their families and businesses in place today," said Gov. Scott. "The level two activation at the State Emergency Operations Center will help state and local emergency management officials work together to ensure our state is ready to respond to any impacts of this weather event."
The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 - Nov. 30.

---

Looks like it should be/is getting sheared to death...

[Her-icane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 060242
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the
low-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.
The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the
east of where the low-level center was last found. Another
Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm
around 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the
center.

The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft
observations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strong
southwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of
Colin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model
consensus.

Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day or
two, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the
flow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later,
the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over
the north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to that
of the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.

It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact
forecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains and
coastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch