TROPICAL STORM COLIN

[Her-icane]

93L



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located about 200 miles east-northeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina.

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues over the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is moving west-northwestward toward the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low pressure area is expected to
form over the Yucatan or the adjacent waters over the weekend.
This low could develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Beven

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JM

Quote:Tropical Storm Possible in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday


By:Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 4:12 PM GMT on June 03, 2016



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A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the Western Caribbean, and this system has the potential for development into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday. Wind shear was a high 30 knots on Friday morning over the region. This high shear will prevent development until Saturday at the earliest as the disturbance heads west-northwest towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. On Saturday and Sunday, shear will drop and an area of low pressure will form over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula. This low and its associated moisture will ride up to the north-northeast into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday under the steering influence of a large trough of low pressure that will move over the central Gulf of Mexico. Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--all showed a tropical depression or tropical storm developing by Monday and making landfall on the west coast of Florida north of Tampa on Tuesday morning. There will be some high wind shear and dry air over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week in association with the upper-level trough of low pressure there, and these conditions will likely interfere with development, making intensification into a hurricane unlikely. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be the main threat from this system, and 2 - 7" of rain can be expected over much of Florida during the period Monday - Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 60%, respectively. Should this system get a name, it would be Colin. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate the Northwest Caribbean disturbance on Saturday afternoon.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending 8 am Wednesday, June 8, 2016. A tropical disturbance is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of 2 - 7" inches to most of Florida, with most of the rain falling Monday and Tuesday. Image credit: National Weather Service.

[ROLLTIDE]

[ROLLTIDE]

[Her-icane]

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 031613
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT FRI 03 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-008

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1500Z
D. 18.0N 87.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z
NEAR 22.5N 88.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located about 315 miles northwest of Bermuda.

1. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are currently poorly organized. A low pressure
system is expected to form in association with this disturbed
weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters
by tomorrow and move generally northward. Subsequently, this low is
likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several
days. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Beven

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[ROLLTIDE]

8AM

Quote: For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located about 315 miles northwest of Bermuda.

1. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are currently poorly organized. A low pressure
system is expected to form in association with this disturbed
weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters
by tomorrow and move generally northward. Subsequently, this low is
likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several
days. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Beven

[Her-icane]

AL, 93, 2016060412, , BEST, 0, 166N, 866W, 30, 1008, LO

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NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 51m51 minutes ago
Today’s recon flight for the northwestern Caribbean Sea disturbance has been cancelled. Another one planned for Sunday afternoon.

[Her-icane]

JM

Quote:Florida West Coast In Sights of Potential Tropical Storm

By:Bob Henson , 7:15 PM GMT on June 04, 2016

A landfalling tropical depression or tropical storm appears increasingly likely to affect the west coast of Florida early in the coming week. On Saturday afternoon, a large tropical wave dubbed Invest 93L was gradually organizing as it moved into the Northwest Caribbean, with an extensive area of convection (showers and thunderstorms) evident on the system’s eastern side (see Figure 1 below). A center of low pressure just beginning to form within this tropical wave is expected to move northward along or just inland from the east coast of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, then emerge late Sunday or Monday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In an outlook issued at 2 PM EDT Saturday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system 70 percent odds of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday evening and an 80 percent chance by Tuesday evening.


Figure 1. Infrared NOAA GOES image of the tropical wave over the Northwest Caribbean as of 1830Z (2:30 pm EDT) Saturday, June 4, 2016. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are concentrated on the east side of the developing center of low pressure. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Track and intensity outlook
The steering flow that will drive this system is fairly straightforward, as an intensifying upper low across the northeast U.S. is joining forces with a weak but persistent upper low over Texas that has fueled heavy rain and deadly flooding over the last week. Given the large channel of southwesterly upper-level flow that will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico, models are in strong agreement that the expected tropical cyclone would move northeast and make landfall along the middle or upper west coast of Florida, most likely on or around Tuesday. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be named Colin—which would be the earliest we have reached the “C” name since Atlantic hurricanes have been named, and the earliest third storm of the calendar year in all recorded storms since 1851, beating an unnamed storm that formed on June 12, 1887.

Although the track of potential Colin-to-be is fairly well defined, there is a bit more uncertainty on how strong it might be. Much will depend on whether the northward movement of the low pressure center ends up off the Yucatan coast, near the coast, or well inland. The greater the interaction with the Yucatan, the more the system will struggle to develop. Even accounting for a good bit of land interaction, conditions will be quite favorable for the system to strengthen after it moves into the southeastern Gulf. Wind shear will be fairly low (the SHIPS model predicts 5 - 10 knots), and above-average sea surface temperatures of around 28°C (82 - 83°F) are more than warm enough to support intensification. However, the system will have only about 36 to 48 hours over the eastern Gulf, which will most likely keep its maximum strength within the tropical storm range. In addition, wind shear will increase to moderate or strong levels as the system moves toward the west coast of Florida ahead of the approaching upper trough.

Hurricane intensity forecasting has improved notably in the 2010s, as Jeff Masters and I discussed in detail in a blog post on May 6. The best-performing intensity model in 2015 was HWRF, and the last several runs of the HWRF through 12Z Saturday morning have brought this system into the 40 - 50 knot range (45 - 55 mph) just before landfall. The GFS model has also been consistent in calling for a weak to moderate tropical storm at landfall. We should have a better handle on this system’s potential strength after it clears the Yucatan. Should it enter the Gulf in a relatively organized state, I would not rule out the possibility of a higher-end tropical storm.


Figure 3. 5-day rainfall projection issued by NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center for the period from 8:00 am Saturday, June 4, 2016, through 8:00 am Thursday, June 9. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/WPC.

Even a weak tropical storm could cause significant water issues
Several factors may come together to produce more coastal and inland flood impacts than one might expect. The potential Colin is likely to be a somewhat asymmetric storm, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains on its east side. This would push water toward the central and northern Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula at the same time that very heavy rain is falling in some areas. A system developing this quickly and remaining near hurricane strength would not pack a major storm surge, especially away from its immediate landfall location. If a Tropical Storm Colin developed and made landfall in Florida’s sparsely populated Big Bend, as consistently projected by the GFS and ECMWF models, this would further reduce the threat of any major surge impacts. However, Tampa will be on the stronger southeast side of the system, and the eventual track could end up closer to Tampa, as suggested by the 12Z Saturday HWRF run. Even a minor storm-enhanced tide could have noticeable impacts in the highly populated Tampa Bay area, which has been designated the nation’s most vulnerable location to higher-end storm surge (not expected with this system). The highest astronomical tides of the month in Tampa—around 3 feet above the average lowest tide (mean low low water)—occur with the new moon, which will be occurring this weekend. Regardless of its strength as a tropical cyclone, the now-developing system is likely to bring very heavy rains across a swath through central and northern Florida (see Figure 3 above), which would only exacerbate the flood potential.

[Batt2fd]

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Bonnie, located a few hundred miles north of Bermuda.

1. A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this low as it moves near the Yucatan Peninsula
and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This system is
likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by late
Sunday or on Monday as it moves northeastward toward the Florida
Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the
next several days. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Pasch

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Bay News 9 (Tampa) - http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/bay...id=bluebar

Quote:ST. PETERSBURG -- We continue to watch an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean. At this time, it does remain disorganized.
Over the next 24 hours, a low pressure will likely develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and it will move NNE into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday.
At this point it appears somewhat likely that a tropical low will be the result. It will track NE or NNE toward the Gulf Coast of Florida. Some uncertainty remains in place as to exactly where along the Gulf Coast this low will track and more importantly, lots of uncertainty remains to its potential organization.
A tropical depression or tropical storm, or its effects will be approaching our area on Monday.
Regardless of exact track, expect rainy and windy conditions Monday, perhaps lingering into very early Tuesday. Although it appears more likely now that this system will already be moving into the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday.
Depending on the short term development of this system, it is possible that a tropical storm watch for parts of our area could be issued as early as this evening.

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000
NOUS42 KNHC 041620
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1220 PM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-009

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 05/1800Z A. 06/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 05/1530Z C. 06/0330Z
D. 22.2N 87.8W D. 25.0N 87.2W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2230Z E. 06/0500Z TO 06/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: 04/1800Z INVEST MISSION CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

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AL, 93, 2016060500, , BEST, 0, 185N, 875W, 30, 1005, LO
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[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
post-tropical cyclone Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles
north-northeast of Bermuda.

1. A broad area of low pressure is located near the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula, accompanied by a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear to be favorable for some development of this low
when it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico later today. This
system is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm
by tonight or on Monday while it moves north-northeastward toward
the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
during the next few days. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Pasch