TROPICAL STORM COLIN

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[Batt2fd]

8 PM

[ROLLTIDE]

5AM

Quote: TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016

Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has
moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the
system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of
deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the
center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest
that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of
the center.

Colin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now
050/27. The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for
the next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer
trough over the eastern United States. After that, the forward
speed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a
couple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic. The
new forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a
northward nudge at 72-120 hours.

Baroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening
today even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics. The
cyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical
low in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter. The
forecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on
input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical
cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this
case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the
post-tropical cyclone. The current warnings are expected to remain
in effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not
get closer to the coast than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 31.6N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 34.1N 75.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 37.8N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/1800Z 42.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0600Z 45.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0600Z 50.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 56.0N 28.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[OPHarbor]

Post Colin Report:
Surface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has
moved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic. Overall, the
system does not look very tropical. However, a large area of
deep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the
center during the night. Aircraft data and ship reports suggest
that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of
the center.

As observed yesterday, and above, Colin never looked very tropical. Here in St. Augustine, I got 5" of rain and more wind than I had expected. There were several reports of minor damage in Jacksonville, probably EF-0 or micro-bursts. Overall, Mother Nature knows what we need and has delivered! I got some free tree trimming and the lawn is happy again. Nice primer for the season.