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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
06-19-2016, 10:48 AM
Post: #11
RE: 94L
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Hunter airborne!
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06-19-2016, 12:50 PM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 01:36 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #12
RE: 94L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized. However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi

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AL, 94, 2016061918, , BEST, 0, 200N, 947W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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06-19-2016, 03:56 PM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 04:25 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #13
RE: 94L
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:45Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:18:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°48'N 94°38'W (19.8N 94.6333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind:
66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the NE (35°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 402m (1,319ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 309m (1,014ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph) which was observed 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SW (226°) from the flight level center at 20:35:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) from the flight level center


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located over
the Bay of Campeche about 175 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico has
become a little better defined today. The associated showers and
thunderstorms are currently not well organized. However, an
increase in the organization of this activity could lead to the
formation of a tropical cyclone at any time before the low moves
inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the
low pressure area. Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone
develops, areas of heavy rain are expected over portions of eastern
Mexico tonight through Tuesday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of
high terrain. For additional information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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06-19-2016, 06:16 PM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 06:53 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #14
RE: TD 4
Next recon...

11 PM EDT departure

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 20/0300Z
D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Posted a little late...JM...

Quote: Gulf of Mexico's 94L Close to Tropical Depression Status


By:Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on June 19, 2016


A tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico (Invest 94L) has grown more organized since Saturday, and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday as the storm heads west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops late Sunday morning showed the disturbance had acquired a well-developed surface circulation, but 94L's heavy thunderstorms were not well organized and were relatively sparse, as seen on Mexican radar out of Sabancuy. Development was being arrested by the presence of high wind shear of 20 knots and a large are of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the southern Gulf of Mexico are very warm, about 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), which will help development. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate 94L on Sunday afternoon to determine if a tropical depression has formed.

[Image: at201694_sat_2.jpg]
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L over the Gulf of Mexico.

[Image: swath_rain.INVEST94L.2016061900.png]
Figure 2. Predicted total rainfall from 94L from the 00Z (8 pm EDT) Saturday June 18, 2016 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted 94L would develop into Tropical Storm Danielle with top winds of 40 - 45 mph and bring widespread rains of 4 - 8" to the coast of Mexico between Veracruz and Tampico, with a few isolated areas getting more than 8". Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Forecast for 94L
Steering currents favor a west-northwest motion for 94L across the Bay of Campeche, with landfall occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Monday afternoon or evening. In this region, 3 - 6" of rain are likely Sunday through Tuesday--with higher rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" with isolated 8 - 12" amounts if 94L ends up developing into a tropical storm. The 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Sunday afternoon, giving 94L increased chances of development The Sunday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all supported development of 94L into a tropical depression; more than 80% of the 70 forecasts from the GFS and European model ensembles showed 94L developing into a tropical depression by Monday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70%. If 94L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Danielle. I don't see heavy rains from 94L reaching South Texas.

Jeff Masters

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
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06-19-2016, 07:19 PM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 07:55 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #15
RE: TD 4
[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

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AL, 04, 2016062000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 951W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR
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AL, 04, 2016062000, , BEST, 0, 200N, 951W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR
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06-19-2016, 09:19 PM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 09:57 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #16
RE: TD 4
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It may be a TD...it may even be declared a TS (Danielle) before it's over...but I've seen more on radar and satellite here in TN this year....some even with convection....
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000
WTNT24 KNHC 200231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 95.4W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 95.4W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 96.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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06-19-2016, 11:13 PM
Post: #17
RE: TD 4
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Hunter is up...
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06-20-2016, 04:51 AM
Post: #18
RE: TD 4
4AM

Quote: TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016
400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that it has not
strengthened, with no increase in flight-level winds and no
significant fall in central pressure since the last mission on
Sunday afternoon. Data from the aircraft show some elongation of
the circulation from northwest to southeast, and this elongation was
also suggested in a recent ASCAT overpass as well as in recent GFS
model surface wind forecasts. Very cold cloud tops developed near
the center, but the area of convection is rather shapeless with
little evidence of banding features. The current intensity is held
at 30 kt. There is now only a short time remaining for
strengthening but since the shear has relaxed somewhat over the
system, it could still become a tropical storm before reaching the
coast. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest
LGEM guidance. After landfall, weakening over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Mexico is likely, and the system should dissipate
on Tuesday.

A slow westward motion, at around 280/6 kt, continues. The track
forecast and its reasoning are the same as in the previous package.
The cyclone is expected to continue to move generally westward to
the south of a large mid-level high pressure area. The official
forecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with
this system. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico over the next couple
of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 20.2N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.2N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0600Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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06-20-2016, 08:18 AM (This post was last modified: 06-20-2016 08:26 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #19
RE: TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Danielle, located over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Danielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Danielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart
NNNN

[Image: 2016AL04_MPSATWND_201606201200_SWHR.GIF]

[Image: vis0.gif]

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AL, 04, 2016062012, , BEST, 0, 206N, 960W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 35, 30, 30, 35, 1012, 120, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANIELLE
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06-20-2016, 10:56 AM
Post: #20
RE: TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
000 WTNT24 KNHC 201431 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 97.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 98.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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