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TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
06-14-2016, 04:12 PM (This post was last modified: 06-20-2016 08:08 AM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE
Many of the models are showing a fairly consistent theme for something in the GOM beginning late next week....genesis and outcome seem slightly different with every run, but think end of June/beginning of July may have some action worth watching...figures, of course, since I'm heading into FL for a couple of weeks around that time...
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06-15-2016, 11:47 AM (This post was last modified: 06-15-2016 11:59 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #2
RE: GOM late next week?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



A broad area of low pressure could form in association with a

tropical wave crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday

or Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some

slow development of this system if the low emerges over the waters

of the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico later this

weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Image: d4jnQBl.png]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Environmental conditions could favor the formation of a broad area
of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche when a westward moving
tropical wave reaches the area later this weekend. Some slight
development of this low is possible on Sunday or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Avila

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Models not in agreement but consensus, if there is one at this time, would be Mexico landfall without much time for development.
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.
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06-15-2016, 03:37 PM
Post: #3
RE: GOM late next week?
if it does form it's MX bound ....zzzzzzzz NEXT!!!

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06-15-2016, 06:40 PM
Post: #4
RE: GOM late next week?
Snoozer indeed, but watch it get named...now down to 10% over 5....


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over eastern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua,
and the adjacent waters of the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due
to interaction with land while the system moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph toward the Bay of Campeche over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Stewart


[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]
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06-18-2016, 08:06 AM (This post was last modified: 06-18-2016 08:23 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #5
RE: GOM late next week?
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity from the southern
Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak surface low pressure system could
form over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but
only gradual development is expected due to proximity to land and
marginally conducive upper-level winds. This system is forecast
to move west-northwestward at about 10 mph before it moves inland
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

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94L INVEST 160618 1200 19.8N 91.0W

AL, 94, 2016061812, , BEST, 0, 196N, 905W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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[Image: 2016AL94_4KMIRIMG_201606181245.GIF]

[Image: RhOu4bZ.png]

[Image: n0FztFQ.png]

Low to moderate shear

[Image: r9mnhd.jpg]

[Image: 6zr2j6.jpg]
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06-18-2016, 10:59 AM (This post was last modified: 06-18-2016 11:39 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #6
RE: GOM late next week?
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

JM

Quote: 94L May Develop, Bring Heavy Rains to Mexico's Bay of Campeche Coast


By:Jeff Masters , 4:10 PM GMT on June 18, 2016



A tropical disturbance over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (Invest 94L) has the potential to develop into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche as the storm heads west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops late Saturday morning showed the disturbance had developed a moderate degree of spin, with a few low-level spiral bands already apparent over the Bay of Campeche; Mexican radar out of Sabancuy showed a few heavy rain showers over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters. Invest 94L had only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, and development was being arrested by interaction with land and the presence of high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. Water vapor satellite images showed a large area of dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, which was also slowing development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the southern Gulf of Mexico are very warm, about 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), which will help development. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is on call to investigate 94L on Sunday afternoon.

[Image: at201694_sat_2.jpg]
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L approaching the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 94L
Steering currents favor a west-northwest motion for 94L across the Bay of Campeche, with landfall occurring between Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Monday afternoon or evening. In this region, 3 - 6" of rain are likely Sunday through Tuesday--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 94L ends up developing into a tropical storm. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay high, 20 - 30 knots, through Sunday night, then fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Monday, giving 94L a better chance to develop then. The Saturday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, had one model--the European--supporting development of 94L into a tropical depression. However, about 40 - 50% of the 70 forecasts from the GFS and European model ensembles showed 94L developing into a tropical depression by Monday. The coast of the southern Gulf of Mexico along the Bay of Campeche is ringed by high mountains that tend to deflect the flow of air into a counter-clockwise path, adding spin that helps aid formation of tropical cyclones. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40%. I put these odds higher, at 60%, given the appearance of 94L on satellite imagery on Saturday morning, and the propensity of the Bay of Campeche to help spin up tropical cyclones. If 94L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Danielle. I don't see heavy rains from 94L reaching South Texas.

Jeff Masters
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06-18-2016, 01:04 PM (This post was last modified: 06-18-2016 01:09 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #7
RE: 94L
[Image: wg8dlm1.GIF]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure has developed offshore of the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, but the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Some gradual development
of this system is expected during the next couple of days in an
environment of marginal upper-level winds, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph before moving inland over eastern Mexico. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brennan
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06-18-2016, 07:02 PM (This post was last modified: 06-18-2016 07:08 PM by Her-icane.)
Post: #8
RE: 94L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation. Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

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AL, 94, 2016061818, , BEST, 0, 197N, 914W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
.
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Models all over the place...here's an interesting solution by GFS....seems improbable, but we may not know what we don't know...

[Image: gfs_mslpa_watl_50.png]
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06-18-2016, 11:05 PM
Post: #9
RE: 94L
[Image: gth_full_update.png]
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06-19-2016, 06:47 AM (This post was last modified: 06-19-2016 07:02 AM by Her-icane.)
Post: #10
RE: 94L
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located over the central Bay of Campeche
about 200 miles east of Tuxpan, Mexico is producing an area of
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph
and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico on Monday.
Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive, a tropical
depression is still likely to form later today or on Monday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, areas of heavy rain are
expected over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.
These rains could could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides, especially in areas of high terrain. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Image: two_atl_5d0.png]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

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AL, 94, 2016061906, , BEST, 0, 199N, 930W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
.
.

[Image: 94L_tracks_latest.png]

[Image: 94L_intensity_latest.png]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A large low pressure system, centered over the central Bay of
Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over much of the Bay of Campeche,
southern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan peninsula and the far NW
Caribbean. The low is moving westward to west-northwestward at
around 10 mph and is forecast to reach the coast of eastern Mexico
on Monday. Although upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive, there is still a high chance for a tropical depression
to form during the next day or so. Please refer to the Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC
for more details.
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