HURRICANE HARVEY

[Kelly_Jernigan]

(08-22-2017 08:21 AM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  This could easily bring a foot of rain for parts of Texas !!!

Don't need that much, I just wanted alittle rain our of him. 2 weeks ago I was asking if this would be a Texas Landfall..

---

---

---

[Kelly_Jernigan]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure over
the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with the remnants of Harvey, has
become better defined during the day. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of
Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday, and move
in the general direction of the Texas coast on Friday. Interests in
northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the
progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and
tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas
coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and
eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


Forecaster Blake

Edit: to remove other system from text.

---

Looks like the models are closing in on each other. With the 72hr out to 120hr showing very slow movement while over land. This could be a HUGE rainmaker for central Texas.

---

[Kelly_Jernigan]

From the local San Antonio office:




Thursday will be will be a dynamic day as two systems driving the
weather will be at play. The aforementioned boundary will linger
across the region and likely support a weak convergence zone to
support diurnal showers and thunderstorms for a 20-40% chance of
scattered activity. While most of this activity should remain
scattered enough not to cause any flooding impacts itself, it will
act to help saturate some soils ahead of the possible tropical
cyclone rainfall totals over the weekend. This preceding rain could
exacerbate possible flooding impacts Friday afternoon and into the
weekend depending on evolution/track of Harvey.

Greater concern for heavy rain and flooding impacts across at least
the I-35 corridor and eastward are increasing per latest model
envelope guidance. The NHC is current giving the remnants of Harvey
a 100% chance of redevelopment into a tropical depression and storm
over the next couple days. This development could occur as early as
tomorrow morning with possible advisories along the Texas coast in
the next 24-48 hours, if not sooner. Both the GFS and EC are in
decent agreement of a strengthening tropical system nearing the
southern to middle Texas coast Friday morning. Anywhere from
Brownsville to Houston could be a possibility as the storm is in its
formation stages currently. Many models are depicting high rainfall
totals across portions of the region. Based on the EC/GFS at least
2-6" is expected along and east of I-35 corridor Friday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon. This total will change and depending on the
track could go significantly higher if the track is farther south
and west or if the EC/GFS solutions pan out. Confidence in these
solutions is slowly growing. Of note, there will be a tight western
rainfall amount gradient somewhere. It is too far out at this time to
speculate where that will be. The rainfall amounts will be refined
and updated as new model guidance and upper-air balloon data are
collected. In addition to heavy rainfall leading to river and flash
flooding, some areas of the eastern Coastal Plains could see tropical
storm force winds Friday into early Saturday. Will not get into
specifics as of yet until the NHC begins advisories on the system.

The longevity of the rainfall this weekend will be due to the system
being advertised to stall near or over the region as it is blocked
by an H5 ridge over the four-corners and attempts to be picked up by
only weak troughing across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. With
tropical downpours and the potential for the system to move slowly,
excessive rainfall amounts are appearing to look possible. Again,
stay tuned through the next 24-48 hours as totals and the track are
refined with extra data being collected.

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey is moving off
the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula into the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical
depression or tropical storm to form on Wednesday or Thursday
while the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf
coast on Friday. Regardless of development, this system is likely
to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a
prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of
Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early
next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical
storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast
later this week, and interests from northeastern Mexico to
southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor its progress.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office for more information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

---

JM

Quote:
Ex-Harvey Poised to Threaten Texas
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 22, 2017, 13:56



Above: The remains of Harvey as seen by the GOES-16 satellite at 9:15 am EDT Tuesday, August 22, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB. NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite has not been declared operational and its data are preliminary and undergoing testing.


All eyes are on the hurricane-friendly waters of the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche, where the remains of Tropical Storm Harvey are expected to organize into a tropical storm or hurricane that will threaten Texas and Mexico late this week.


On Friday, Harvey buffeted the Windward Islands as minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. High wind shear near 20 mph, combined with the accelerating east-to-west blowing trade winds that Harvey was embedded in, were sufficient to rip the storm apart on Saturday in the Eastern Caribbean, and the remains of Harvey were unable to reorganize over the Western Caribbean.


Satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that center of ex-Harvey was just about to emerge from the western edge of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Ex-Harvey had a large, sloppy-looking circulation that was not well-defined, and only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Once the storm fully emerges over the Gulf, conditions are quite favorable for development. Wind shear is light, less than 10 knots. The atmosphere has a high mid-level relative humidity of 70%, and the ocean is warm, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 29°C (84°F.)



Figure 1. Intensity forecasts made for ex-Harvey at 8 am EDT Tuesday, August 22, 2017. Most of the intensity models predicted ex-Harvey would be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane by Friday, when landfall is expected on the coast of Texas or northeastern Mexico. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.


Forecast for ex-Harvey

SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F) as ex-Harvey moves to the northwest towards Texas this week. The wind shear will stay light, and the atmosphere will remain moist. These conditions should allow ex-Harvey to regenerate into at least a tropical storm before it makes landfall on Friday, and it may be able to reach hurricane strength. The 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all developed the system would develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, and all of these models showed a landfall between the Mexico/Texas border and the central coast of Texas on Friday. The NOAA jet is flying a dropsonde mission over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening to help the models make good forecasts for their 0Z Wednesday runs. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. Regardless of development, coastal Texas can expect heavy rains in excess of five inches late this week.
.

[Joe-Nathan]

From one of our local mets, Rob Perillo w/ KATC TV3:

https://twitter.com/robperillo/status/90...2754500608



[font=Segoe UI, Arial, sans-serif]

Quote:Comparison: GFS & Euro models over the next week-remember just models, changes likely-but highlights potential. #Harvey #lawx #txwx #tropics pic.twitter.com/fbnekDiFQT
— Rob Perillo (@robperillo) August 22, 2017

[/font]

[Her-icane]

---

[Joe-Nathan]

Anybody else having trouble with the Recon data Google Earth KMZ loading properly?

[Her-icane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system. The low is forecast to move to the
northwest at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico,
possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This
system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing
the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding
across portions of Texas and Louisiana into early next week. Harvey
could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force
winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today
for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system and refer to products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[ROLLTIDE]

(08-23-2017 07:12 AM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  Anybody else having trouble with the Recon data Google Earth KMZ loading properly?

It's not working for me either. Let me see what I can dig up

[Joe-Nathan]

Ya both versions of GE an GE Pro won't work. Sent message to site admin at http://tropicalatlantic.com/ where I get these KMZ from to see if they have a fix.