HURRICANE IRMA

[Alabamaboy]

(08-31-2017 02:40 PM)SiStAtWiStA Wrote:  Discussion on NHC states that the central Atlantic high will build in to the north of Irma and cause her to continue moving in the west-southwest motion longer than the initial forecast. This was has me VERY worried... if she gets into the Gulf - I don't even want to think about it!

The ECM has it coming south of Fla into the GOM as a cat 5

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2017 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 17:08:39 N Lon : 34:35:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.4mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.9 4.3 4.9

Center Temp : -48.9C Cloud Region Temp : -61.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/24hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 44.1 degrees

[Squirrelmonkey]

She is now a 3??????

[ROLLTIDE]

(08-31-2017 12:36 PM)Squirrelmonkey Wrote:  nope......... this one needs to start re-curving

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any long range model links? i have lost all mine

I have lots of model links .... Wait you were talking about Tropical models

[ROLLTIDE]

Come and play our NCAA pickem contest !!


http://hardcoreweather.com/thread-26446-...#pid332299

[Her-icane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 312031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Her-icane]

[Her-icane]

TNT02 KNGU 312100
SUBJ: HURRICANE IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 006
1. HURRICANE IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 34.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 34.3W

---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8N 36.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.9N 42.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS

---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 16.8N 47.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.0N 52.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.5N 56.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 34.8W.
HURRICANE IRMA (11L) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM WEST OF
CAPE VERDE AMD HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. 12FT SEAS: 90NM NE, 60NM SE, 30NM SW, 60NM NW
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
BT
NNNN

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000
WTNT31 KNHC 010239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west
is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Her-icane]

---

---

[Her-icane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010844
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA HOLDING STEADY WITH 115-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 36.5W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 36.5 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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[ROLLTIDE]