HURRICANE IRMA

[ROLLTIDE]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

[Her-icane]

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 30.3 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma could become a hurricane
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

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[SiStAtWiStA]

It is rather uncommon, especially given the time of year, for a system's track to take it south of due west. This doesn't bode well for us on the gulf coast if Irma maintains her veracity as she moves through the Caribbean!

[Her-icane]

WTNT02 KNGU 301500
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11L
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 31.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.7N 31.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT

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24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.3N 33.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

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36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.9N 35.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.2N 37.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

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72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7N 41.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 46.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.0N 51.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

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REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 30.3W.
TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM WEST OF
CAPE VERDE AND HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. 12FT SEAS: 20NM NE, 0NM SE, 0NM SW, 30NM NW
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY (09L) WARNINGS (WTNT01 KNGU)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
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[Joe-Nathan]

Out of spitefulness I am calling her a FISH!!! Don't want to even have to begin thinking about another GOM storm.

[Her-icane]

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(08-30-2017 12:59 PM)Joe-Nathan Wrote:  Out of spitefulness I am calling her a FISH!!! Don't want to even have to begin thinking about another GOM storm.

Many days still over water, reasonably favorable conditions, many the model to be run....
.

[Her-icane]

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm
is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a
slower rate of speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is
expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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JM

Quote:
Tropical Storm Irma Forms in the Eastern Atlantic
Dr. Jeff Masters · August 30, 2017, 19:20



Above: Tropical Storm Irma as seen on Wednesday morning, August 30, 2017, from a composite of the MODIS images from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites.

Tropical Storm Irma formed on Wednesday morning in the far eastern Atlantic, and has the potential to become a dangerous long-track Cape-Verdes-type hurricane. Satellite images on Wednesday afternoon showed that Irma was well-organized, with plenty of heavy thunderstorms, impressive low-level spiral bands, and an upper-level outflow channel to the south. Conditions were favorable for development, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27.5°C (82°F), light wind shear of 5 -10 knots, and a moist surrounding atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 70%.



Intensity forecast for Irma

Quote:For the next five days, wind shear was predicted to be very favorable for development--a low 5 – 10 knots--according to the 18Z Wednesday run of the SHIPS model. Irma will begin moving into a drier region with cooler sea surface temperatures beginning on Thursday. Friday through Sunday, it’s expected SSTs will be 26.5 – 27.5°C (80 - 82°F), and the mid-level relative humidity will be 50 – 55%--conditions that are marginal for development. If Irma can build an inner core and intensify into a hurricane before Friday, it may be able to shrug off these marginal conditions without serious difficulty, though. Early next week, when Irma will be approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands, SSTs will warm considerably with a major increase in total heat content. The atmosphere is also predicted to be moister with low shear, so increased strengthening is likely. Three of our most reliable intensity models, the HWRF, LGEM, and DSHIPS, predicted in their 12Z and 18Z Wednesday runs that Irma would be a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds by Monday, and I think this is a reasonable forecast.



Track forecast for Irma

Quote:Irma will head generally west at about 10 - 15 mph through Friday, then assume a more west-southwesterly track over the weekend, as the ridge of high pressure steering the storm builds to the southwest. This would potentially bring Irma into the Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Tuesday night, September 5, as predicted by the 12Z Wednesday run of the European model. The GFS model was much less concerning, with its 12Z Wednesday run predicting that a strong trough of low pressure would turn Irma to the northwest early next week, resulting in the storm missing the Lesser Antilles Islands by more than 500 miles. It is too early to pick a solution, since 7-day hurricane forecasts are of extremely low reliability.
.

[ROLLTIDE]

Looks fishy .. Time to focus on Jose in the GOM next week

[Her-icane]

.
AL, 11, 2017083100, , BEST, 0, 163N, 318W, 55, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA
.

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WTNT02 KNGU 302100
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 30.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 30.7W

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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.8N 32.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS

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24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.3N 34.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

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36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.8N 36.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.2N 38.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS

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72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.2N 43.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.3N 47.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS

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120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.5N 52.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

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REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 31.2W.
TROPICAL STORM IRMA (11L) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 647 NM WEST OF
CAPE VERDE AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. 12FT SEAS: 45NM NE, 0NM SE, 0NM SW, 45NM NW
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY (09L) WARNINGS (WTNT01 KNGU)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
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[Her-icane]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 32.2W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 32.2 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by Thursday, and this general motion
should continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and Irma
is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Irma continues to become better organized, with the development of
a small CDO feature and increased banding near the center. An
earlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma
has a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was
present. A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis
for the initial intensity of 55 kt. Irma is expected to steadily
strengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a
low-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea
surface temperatures. After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and
lower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process.
However, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus
models make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory
through 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter. The
new official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative
as it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON
consensus at days 4 and 5.

Irma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer
ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is
about the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn
west-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading
for a couple of days. The high pressure ridge over the central
Atlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is
expected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the
weekend. There is still some spread among the track models, so the
NHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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