HURRICANE NATE
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10-04-2017, 03:53 PM
Post: #31
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RE: T.D.#16
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WTNT41 KNHC 042051 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Visible satellite images show that the depression has lots of curved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core features. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the depression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with maximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt. These data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory. Environmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over the next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in the path of the cyclone. The various rapid intensification indices are all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance of rapid intensification occurring. The fly in the ointment, however, is all of the potential land interaction, first over Central America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. As a compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the previous one during the first 3 days, but is still below some guidance, such as the HWRF. The depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a distant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. However the steering pattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric trough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. While there is some agreement on the synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A hurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening. 3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 12.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-04-2017, 03:59 PM
Post: #32
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RE: T.D.#16
![]() Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-04-2017, 04:30 PM
Post: #33
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RE: T.D.#16
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? "Don't believe them, don't fear them, don't ask anything of them." ~Alexander Solzhenitsyn |
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10-04-2017, 05:31 PM
Post: #34
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RE: T.D.#16
Houston should be spared. https://spacecityweather.com/a-hurricane...s-weekend/
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10-04-2017, 08:05 PM
Post: #35
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RE: T.D.#16
models shifting well west now
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10-04-2017, 09:04 PM
Post: #36
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RE: T.D.#16 | |||
10-04-2017, 10:03 PM
Post: #37
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RE: T.D.#16
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WTNT41 KNHC 050248 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 There have been some structural changes to the depression during the past few hours. Inner-core convection began developing just after the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar images from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective band to the east and southeast of the center. Despite these changes, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its center moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still expected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens. Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat content and low shear should contribute to strengthening. Despite these favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over Nicaragua and Honduras. Strengthening is likely to continue through at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. After day 3, there are some indications that higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no means a definite one at this time. Needless to say, there continues to be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just a bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance, although it should be noted that the official forecast still lies above the normally skillful HCCA model. If the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not much easier. For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on how the depression will interact with a disturbance currently located near the Straits of Florida. For example, the ECMWF model shows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity, which swings the depression more to the east on the right side of the guidance envelope. The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such interaction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance envelope. This setup has significant downstream effects after 48 hours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on a western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward, although it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the HCCA model. Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is close to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to the consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward adjustment. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday. Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night. 2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of this area. 3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 12.8N 82.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-04-2017, 10:04 PM
Post: #38
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RE: T.D.#16
![]() Twitter updates we will follow you back http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather Now on Facebook We will like you back http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall |
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10-05-2017, 12:11 AM
Post: #39
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RE: T.D.#16
Great Roll wants more site traffic so we get a hurricane in his home town. The bonus is I'm working a 12 hour shift at the airport Sunday night. Should be some nice breezes then.
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10-05-2017, 07:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-05-2017 07:03 AM by Alex.)
Post: #40
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RE: TROPICAL STORM NATE
And now Tropical Storm Nate has formed.
![]() AARoads |
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