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Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
09-12-2019, 03:06 PM
Post: #11
RE: 95L Fl and GOM threat
Code red now:

Quote: ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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09-12-2019, 03:39 PM
Post: #12
RE: 95L Fl and GOM threat



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09-12-2019, 03:40 PM
Post: #13
RE: 95L Fl and GOM threat
ational Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE at 5PM. ‬Unfortunately, impacts will be felt in the northern Bahamas, which was devastated by Dorian. ‬

The disturbance remains relatively disorganized this afternoon, with hurricane Hunters not finding a well defined closed surface circulation. However, tropical storm force winds are occurring, and there is strong support from model guidance that NINE will become a tropical storm at some point. NINE is fighting wind shear at the moment, but that is expected to lessen over the next few days as it’s steered NW towards the northern Bahamas. Water temperatures are plenty warm to support a tropical storm in the Bahamas.

Models have shifted east since yesterday, with the consensus now bringing this system east of the Florida peninsula, and eventually off the east coast. Or in other words, NOT in the Gulf of Mexico. I have to stress though that a low level center hasn’t developed yet, and until that happens, nobody should let their guard down. Even if NINE went into the Gulf, it wouldn’t become anything strong, as powerful wind shear from an upper level low would keep it weak. I’ll have more later, but residents along the Gulf Coast should feel good about trends over the past 24 hours.

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09-12-2019, 04:05 PM
Post: #14
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
[Image: 204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

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09-12-2019, 04:06 PM
Post: #15
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
494
WTNT44 KNHC 122046
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

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09-12-2019, 04:52 PM
Post: #16
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
(09-12-2019 04:05 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  [Image: 204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

Here we go again with an unrealistic track. Just show a general triangle like the 1990s and call it good NHC...

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09-12-2019, 04:53 PM
Post: #17
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
(09-12-2019 04:52 PM)Alex Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 04:05 PM)ROLLTIDE Wrote:  [Image: 204713_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png]

Here we go again with an unrealistic track. Just show a general triangle like the 1990s and call it good NHC...


Someone give Trump a sharpie Tongue bet its going to hit Alabama !

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09-12-2019, 05:56 PM (This post was last modified: 09-12-2019 06:21 PM by stella1952.)
Post: #18
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
[Image: 20192552210_GOES16-ABI-taw-09-900x540.jpg]

Quote: Someone give Trump a sharpie [Image: tongue.gif] bet its going to hit Alabama !
Look how close it is on the 5PM!! Confused
I'm gonna call the White House to see if y'all are in danger! Tongue

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09-12-2019, 06:56 PM
Post: #19
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
(09-12-2019 05:56 PM)stella1952 Wrote:  [Image: 20192552210_GOES16-ABI-taw-09-900x540.jpg]

Quote: Someone give Trump a sharpie [Image: tongue.gif] bet its going to hit Alabama !
Look how close it is on the 5PM!! Confused
I'm gonna call the White House to see if y'all are in danger! Tongue


Going to board up . Talk to you later Tongue

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09-13-2019, 06:43 AM
Post: #20
RE: Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical disturbance is currently comprised of a trough elongated
from west-southwest to east-northeast, with a vorticity center near
a loosely curved convective band at the eastern end of the trough.
While the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, it does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on satellite
intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.

The disturbance is now moving a little faster, with the initial
motion of 315/5. The system is to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is to the east of
a mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The
large-scale models forecast the ridge to shift eastward into the
Atlantic during the next 24-48 h, with a weakness developing near
the southeastern coast of the United States and the east coast of
the Florida peninsula. The track guidance indicates that the
disturbance will move generally northwestward for 48 h or so,
followed by a turn to the north and eventually to the northeast as
the system moves through the weakness in the ridge. There is some
spread in the guidance, with the GFS model taking a weaker system
into the Florida peninsula while the UKMET and ECMWF models show a
stronger cyclone farther offshore. Overall, there has been an
eastward shift of the guidance since the previous advisory,
especially after 72 h. The new forecast track is thus also nudged
a little to the east and now calls for the system to spend less
time over the Florida peninsula than previously forecast. The new
forecast track is to the left of the center of the guidance
envelope and the consensus models, and additional adjustments may
be necessary once the circulation center becomes better defined.

The disturbance is currently in an environment of moderate
southwesterly shear and upper-level divergence caused by the
upper-level low and a shortwave trough extending from the low
eastward to the southeastern Bahamas. The shear should gradually
diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the
disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone and intensify. The
large-scale models forecast the shear to increase after 72 h as a
mid-latitude westerly trough moves through the southeastern United
States and approaches the system. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast through 72 h, then it is stronger
than the previous forecast due to the forecast track keeping the
system more over water.

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