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Irene
08-17-2005, 04:45 AM
Post: #251
Irene
Here are the latest positions as of 5:00AM EST by the NHC

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08-17-2005, 04:57 AM
Post: #252
Irene
Here are the latest model runs as of 17/06Z

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08-17-2005, 01:40 PM
Post: #253
Irene
Here are the latest positions as of 11:00AM EST by the NHC and the latest model runs as of 17/12Z. This will be the last post for this system since it is no longer a threat to land. All eyes are now on coming back from the dead TD 10

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08-17-2005, 04:53 PM
Post: #254
Irene
Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 53


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2005



the strong westerly shear has taken its toll on Irene and the
system is no longer a hurricane. An average of Dvorak numbers from
the three satellite agencies also supports lowering the intensity
to 60 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate has picked up to 050/18...indicating
that the acceleration of the system continues. Water vapor imagery
shows a vigorous shortwave trough extending from the Canadian
Maritimes to 28n68w that is moving rapidly toward Irene. As this
shortwave trough and associated surface front sweeps over Irene
from the west...the storm is expected to accelerate further
to the northeast in response to the increasing southwesterly
steering flow. Irene is forecast to move over sharply lower SSTs
within 12 hours...north of 41n latitude. The cyclone should quickly
decouple over the cooler waters and become an extratropical storm
by 24 hours...or sooner...as indicated by the FSU cyclone phase
analysis web Page. Beyond 24 hours...extratropical Irene should
continue accelerating in the mid-latitude westerlies and race
off to the northeast toward Greenland and Iceland. The official
track is virtually identical to the previous forecast and is good
agreement with the consensus of the tightly packed NHC model
guidance.

The initial 12 foot sea radii have been expanded out to
200 nm in the NE quadrant based on a ship report from vessel
elvx2.

Forecaster Cobb/Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 38.5n 56.3w 60 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 41.1n 52.9w 55 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 47.1n 46.9w 50 kt...extratropical
36hr VT 19/0600z 55.5n 40.5w 50 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 19/1800z...absorbed

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