Post Reply 
Katrina main thread
08-13-2005, 02:29 PM
Post: #31
Katrina main thread
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s&DISPLAY=

Tropical Depression 10 is official.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 02:32 PM
Post: #32
Katrina main thread
Yes, Thanks. Man I actually love this time of year. Not for distruction but for the adrinnalion for trying to forcast yourself when how and where it could go or do. I know when I grow up I am to be a Metoroligist and will be one of the best. But I will take Tornados more but I have so much of an oppritunity. Like you chris going to college and many here going. Hope to see all of you when I graduate and work with this team I might see in the future. I just loved weather since I was five and been more passionate every day.


Sry for off topic. A little bit
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 03:28 PM
Post: #33
Katrina main thread
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 13, 2005



...New tropical depression forms in the Atlantic...expected to
remain over water for the next few days...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of newly formed Tropical Depression
Ten was located near latitude 14.3 north...longitude 44.9 west or
about 1100 miles...1765 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression has the potential to become a tropical storm
on Sunday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...14.3 N... 44.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 13, 2005


Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure that
developed in association with a tropical wave in the Atlantic...east
of the Lesser Antilles... has become better organized...and based
on Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB the system has
been upgraded to tropical depression status.
Currently...the depression has a large area of convection with some
curved bands and outflow expanding westward. However...this
favorable environment may not last for long. Unanimoulsy...all
global models are developing a rather strong and unusually deep
upper-trough between the Leeward Islands and the depression. This
trough will likely produce a hostile environment for the depression
to strengthen significantly. SHIPS model forecast a gradual
intensification...and the GFDL that for the past few runs made this
disturbance a strong hurricane...no longer strengthens the cyclone.
Due to the upper-trough...the official intensity forecast calls for
slight increase in the winds only...with the potential for some
strengthening after 3 days...when the upper-trough moves out of the
area. All this is valid if the depression survives the next two
days.
The depression is in the formative stage so the initial motion is
highly uncertain. Best estimate is toward the northwest of 315
degrees at 8 knots. The current slow motion suggests that the
steering currents are weak. Most of the global models forecast the
development of a ridge to the northeast of the depression. This
pattern would steer the cyclone toward the northwest for the next 2
to 3 days with a possibility of a turn to the west-northwest
therafter...as a weak ridge develops to the north of the cyclone.
This is consistent with the GFS...GFDL and the ECMWF models. On
this track...the cyclone should pass well north of the Lesser
Antilles.
The depression is expected to pass near the NOAA buoy 41041. The
data from the buoy will give US a better structure of the cyclone
or if exists at all.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 14.3n 44.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 15.0n 46.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 16.5n 47.0w 35 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 17.5n 48.0w 35 kt
48hr VT 15/1800z 18.5n 49.0w 35 kt
72hr VT 16/1800z 20.5n 52.5w 40 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 22.5n 55.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 18/1800z 24.0n 59.5w 50 kt


$$

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 03:39 PM
Post: #34
Katrina main thread
[Image: at200510_5day.gif]



This ain't looking good!! Canesmile1
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 04:24 PM
Post: #35
Katrina main thread
well that depends on where you are.... In the GOM, it again looks like we have nothing to worry about. but again the East coast will have to be on alert. Guess I will still have to wait until September before I have to be on my toes again...

Thanks for the excitment DENNIS
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 04:30 PM
Post: #36
Katrina main thread
kratzerjd Wrote:well that depends on where you are.... In the GOM, it again looks like we have nothing to worry about. but again the East coast will have to be on alert. Guess I will still have to wait until September before I have to be on my toes again...

Thanks for the excitment DENNIS

not so fast my friend there is a nice wave down in the Carib that should be in the GOM by next weekened. So get your Hummer ready for some storm chasing in a couple of days .

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 04:31 PM
Post: #37
Katrina main thread
I'm in southern south carolinia 40 miles northeast of savannah, ga. It looks like its aiming straight at me.
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 05:02 PM
Post: #38
Katrina main thread
soonermeteor Wrote:Chris that was from the beggining of the thread, a mix up with Irene. It was changed. Cool

Jose the fish :fruit

Oh, ok... sorry then, i was looking at what was thjere now and what was said.

Christopher Roderick
B.S. Meteorology
Palm Bay and Melbourne Photographer
www.CDRPhotography.net
[EMAIL="ChrisD[email protected]"][email protected]
[/EMAIL]Twitter @CDR48fan
Palm Bay, Fl.
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 05:43 PM
Post: #39
Katrina main thread
[Image: early2.png]

Twitter updates we will follow you back
http://twitter.com/Hardcoreweather
Now on Facebook We will like you back
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Hardcorewe...466?v=wall


Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
08-13-2005, 06:11 PM (This post was last modified: 08-13-2005 06:54 PM by Alabamaboy.)
Post: #40
Katrina main thread
Here are the latest positions strike probabilities and cone error on TD10 as of 5:00PM EST by the NHC and the latest model runs as of 13/18Z

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
Find all posts by this user
Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 


Forum Jump:


User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)