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TD Ernesto main thread
08-31-2006, 06:04 PM
Post: #1241
TD Ernesto main thread
Quote:Were you in Lafayette during Rita?

Closer to Baton Rouge. I don't think Lafayette was out more than a couple days.

I've ridden out quite a few storms and the only one that knocked me down for more than a couple days was Andrew. (8 days.) We're 60 miles from New Orleans and we only lost power for a day and a half after freaking Katrina. (LSU didn't lose power at ALL for Katrina...)

Quote:When Hurricane Danny parked over my house for 24 hours we lost power and didn't get it back for 5 days. A little more than an afternoon thunderstorm . 31 inches of rain is what was in my weather station

I remember that storm. It represents the exception, not the norm. Of course, it's possible that this storm will make landfall and park, but that's not what the forecast calls for.
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08-31-2006, 06:10 PM
Post: #1242
TD Ernesto main thread
Wfus52 Kmhx 312305
Tormhx
Ncc049-312330-
/o.new.kmhx.to.w.0027.060831t2306z-060831t2330z/

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/morehead City Nc
706 Pm Edt Thu Aug 31 2006

The National Weather Service In Newport
Has Issued A

* tornado Warning For...
Craven County In Eastern North Carolina


* Until 730 Pm Edt

* At 700 Pm Edt...national Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated A
Severe Thunderstorm Capable Of Producing A Tornado 8 Miles
Southeast Of Havelock...or 6 Miles Northeast Of Newport...moving
Northwest At 20 Mph.

* The Tornado Is Expected To Be Near...
Havelock Around 720 Pm Edt...
Neuse Forest Around 730 Pm Edt...

If No Basement Is Available...seek Shelter On The Lowest Floor Of The
Building In An Interior Hallway Or Room Such As A Closet. Use
Blankets Or Pillows To Cover Your Body And Always Stay Away From
Windows. If You Are In A Mobile Home Or Vehicle...evacuate Them And
Get Inside A Substantial Shelter.

Please Report Severe Weather To The National Weather Service By
Calling Toll Free...1-800-889-6889...when You Can Do So Safely.

Lat...lon 3484 7690 3484 7677 3487 7669 3510 7702
3493 7711

$$

26





--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wfus52 Kmhx 312256
Tormhx
Ncc031-312330-
/o.new.kmhx.to.w.0026.060831t2257z-060831t2330z/

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested
tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/morehead City Nc
657 Pm Edt Thu Aug 31 2006

The National Weather Service In Newport
Has Issued A

* tornado Warning For...
Carteret County In Eastern North Carolina


* Until 730 Pm Edt

* At 654 Pm Edt...the Public Reported A Tornado Near Carteret
County...or 16 Miles Northeast Of Beaufort...moving Northwest At 35
Mph.

* The Tornado Is Expected To Be Near...
Rural Carteret County Around 710 Pm Edt...

If No Basement Is Available...seek Shelter On The Lowest Floor Of The
Building In An Interior Hallway Or Room Such As A Closet. Use
Blankets Or Pillows To Cover Your Body And Always Stay Away From
Windows. If You Are In A Mobile Home Or Vehicle...evacuate Them And
Get Inside A Substantial Shelter.

Please Report Severe Weather To The National Weather Service By
Calling Toll Free...1-800-889-6889...when You Can Do So Safely.

Lat...lon 3475 7645 3487 7628 3513 7654 3500 7672

$$

26




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08-31-2006, 06:13 PM
Post: #1243
TD Ernesto main thread
attyeddy Wrote:Closer to Baton Rouge. I don't think Lafayette was out more than a couple days.

I've ridden out quite a few storms and the only one that knocked me down for more than a couple days was Andrew. (8 days.) We're 60 miles from New Orleans and we only lost power for a day and a half after freaking Katrina. (LSU didn't lose power at ALL for Katrina...)



I remember that storm. It represents the exception, not the norm. Of course, it's possible that this storm will make landfall and park, but that's not what the forecast calls for.

First of all, Baton Rouge was closer to 150 miles instead of just 100 miles, is a big difference, second, officially B.R. only had wind gusts not even to 50 mph during Rita, no wonder you didn't loose any power.
In a strong tropical storm to weak Cat 1, you could loose power, that's why you lost power during Katrina because you had wind gusts to near Hurricane Force, and I had evacuated to B.R. during Katrina and the Hotel lost power for a day.
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08-31-2006, 06:14 PM
Post: #1244
TD Ernesto main thread
Yea that cell with the tornado warning coming ashore in Carteret County is showing signs of rotation. I believe it's near the State Park. Everyone in SE North Carolina needs to pay attention because these will pop up fast.

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08-31-2006, 06:17 PM
Post: #1245
TD Ernesto main thread
Yes they will pop up fast. Also they will prob. be rain wrapped so you won't even see them coming. and with it getting dark you prob. wouldn't see them coming any ways. So if you are in the warning area PLEASE take cover right now!
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08-31-2006, 06:34 PM
Post: #1246
TD Ernesto main thread
Quote:First of all, Baton Rouge was closer to 150 miles instead of just 100 miles, is a big difference, second, officially B.R. only had wind gusts not even to 50 mph during Rita, no wonder you didn't loose any power.
In a strong tropical storm to weak Cat 1, you could loose power, that's why you lost power during Katrina because you had wind gusts to near Hurricane Force, and I had evacuated to B.R. during Katrina and the Hotel lost power for a day.

Several things wrong here. We were about 120 miles from the east wall of Rita. During Rita we had sustained winds in excess of 50, frequent gusts to 90.

During Katrina, we had LESS wind. Sustained MAYBE 40 with gusts around 70 to 80. And we were CLOSER. Difference was we were on the WEST side of Katrina. The ONLY reason we lost power at all was because a freaking oak tree fell on a neighbor's house. Outside of my subdivision, power was out only until a few hours after the storm cleared.

Those were HUGE storms. Why should someone hardly closer than you were to Katrina crap themselves over this wimp?
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08-31-2006, 06:43 PM
Post: #1247
TD Ernesto main thread
628
URNT12 KNHC 312338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:22:20Z
B. 33 deg 00 min N
078 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 65 kt
E. 126 deg 073 nm
F. 211 deg 063 kt
G. 123 deg 046 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 19 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 118 / 23NM
GOOD RADAR BANDING STARTING TO FORM
;
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08-31-2006, 07:00 PM
Post: #1248
TD Ernesto main thread
so that update above me has max sustained wind at 63 kts.. isn't 65 kts 75 mph? Its getting so so so close..
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08-31-2006, 07:01 PM
Post: #1249
TD Ernesto main thread
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006

...Ernesto remains just below hurricane strength...rainbands movingonto the coast of the Carolinas...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of EdistoBeach to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and Albemarlesounds.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River SouthCarolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch meansthat hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...inthis case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto waslocated near latitude 33.2 north...longitude 78.3 west or about 75miles...125 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...29 km/hr.On this track...the center of Ernesto will cross the North Carolinacoast tonight.
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraftindicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. While little change in strength isexpected before landfall...any strengthening during the next fewhours would bring Ernesto to the coast as a category one hurricane.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 kmmainly to the east of the center. Gusts to tropical storm-force arespreading onto the North Carolina coast near Cape Fear.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunterwas 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levelsis possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areasof onshore flow within the warning area.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeasternSouth Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern andcentral Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches... through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-threatening flashfloods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina throughtonight.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...33.2 N...78.3 W. Movementtoward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the NationalHurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$Forecaster Beven

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08-31-2006, 07:06 PM
Post: #1250
TD Ernesto main thread
shellylay81 Wrote:so that update above me has max sustained wind at 63 kts.. isn't 65 kts 75 mph? Its getting so so so close..

thats flight level not surface but yes 65kts surface would be hurricane force you would need about 80kts flight level to be a hurricane
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