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TD Ernesto main thread
08-31-2006, 09:36 PM
Post: #1261
TD Ernesto main thread
501
URNT12 KNHC 010234
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/02:21:20Z
B. 33 deg 44 min N
078 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1320 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 018 deg 049 kt
G. 269 deg 024 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1521 m
J. 19 C/ 1522 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z
;
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08-31-2006, 09:37 PM (This post was last modified: 08-31-2006 09:40 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #1262
TD Ernesto main thread
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006

...Center of Ernesto near landfall on the North Carolina coast nearCape Fear...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinuedfrom the South Santee River South Carolina southward.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of the SouthSantee River to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico andAlbemarle sounds. Gale warnings are in effect for the Atlanticcoast and the Chesapeake Bay north of the Tropical Storm Warningarea due to a strong pressure gradient north of Ernesto.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River SouthCarolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch meansthat hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...inthis case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto waslocated near latitude 33.9 north...longitude 78.2 west...or near theNorth Carolina coast just west of Cape Fear. This position is also about 25 miles... 45 km...southwest of Wilmington North Carolinaand about 105 miles...165 km...west-southwest of Cape Lookout NorthCarolina.
Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...30 km/hr. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed areexpected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring thecenter inland over eastern North Carolina for the remainder oftonight and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with highergusts. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves inland over NorthCarolina.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles...230 kmmainly to the east of the center. The National ocean servicestation at Wrightsville Beach North Carolina recently reported asix-minute average wind of 55 mph with a gust to 67 mph.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reservehurricane hunter aircraft is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levelsis possible along the coast of North Carolina in areas of onshoreflow within the warning area. Tides are currently running about 3feet above normal at Wrightsville Beach.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible from northeasternSouth Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern andcentral Appalachians through Saturday...with isolated maximumamounts of 15 inches. These amounts could cause life-threateningflash floods and mudslides.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina andsoutheastern Virginia through Friday morning.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...33.9 N...78.2 W. Movementtoward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500am EDT.
$$Forecaster Beven

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08-31-2006, 10:49 PM
Post: #1263
TD Ernesto main thread
TROPICAL STORM Ernesto[/url] TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF Ernesto[/url] MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF Ernesto[/url] MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH.

$$

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08-31-2006, 10:53 PM
Post: #1264
TD Ernesto main thread
Yeap, here is a report from Southport, 3 miles just east of Longbeach, verifying the 988 MB with Ernesto and almost calm winds at :20 past the hour.

Conditions at: KSUT observed 01 September 2006 03:40 UTC
Temperature: 22.0°C (72°F)
Dewpoint: 21.0°C (70°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.17 inches Hg (987.9 mb)
Winds: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 knots; 5.7 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 900 feet AGL
Present Weather: +RA (heavy rain)
KSUT 010340Z AUTO 33011KT 2SM +RA OVC009 22/21 A2917 RMK AO2 P0037


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at: KSUT observed 01 September 2006 03:20 UTC
Temperature: 22.0°C (72°F)
Dewpoint: 21.0°C (70°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.20 inches Hg (988.9 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 knots; 2.1 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)
KSUT 010320Z AUTO 04004KT 4SM -RA BKN009 OVC012 22/21 A2920 RMK AO2 P0002
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08-31-2006, 11:44 PM
Post: #1265
TD Ernesto main thread
Sorry for the delay had problems with the download server. Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 1/00Z by the NHC and the latest positions as of 11:00PM EST by the NHC

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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09-01-2006, 12:06 AM
Post: #1266
TD Ernesto main thread
attyeddy Wrote:Not necessarily. A Cat 1 isn't a whole lot different from a thunderstorm, it just lasts a little longer. Last year, I was about a hundred miles from Rita's landfall, on the east side and we didn't even blink. At peak, we were getting strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2 winds. You may lose power for a little while but you won't get any substantial grid damage. Don't sweat it.

With that said.... If you have trees leaning towards your home, stay away from that part of your home. A lot of rain and a bit of sustained wind can blow blow em over. Other than that, don't sweat it.

I was in BR for Rita and lost power for three days, where are you located? And if I recall right, my parents went back home to abbeville on sunday, and got power back on monday, one day more than I did.
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09-01-2006, 12:09 AM
Post: #1267
TD Ernesto main thread
Ernesto near Wilmington NC, reporting pressure down to 986MB just a few minutes ago.

Conditions at: KILM observed 01 September 2006 04:49 UTC
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.11 inches Hg (985.9 mb)
Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.4 m/s)
gusting to 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
Visibility: 6 miles (10 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 600 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
KILM 010449Z AUTO 17020G31KT 6SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC010 26/25 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 10042/0428 WSHFT 0435 P0066 402610228
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09-01-2006, 12:31 AM
Post: #1268
TD Ernesto main thread
attyeddy Wrote:Not necessarily. A Cat 1 isn't a whole lot different from a thunderstorm, it just lasts a little longer. Last year, I was about a hundred miles from Rita's landfall, on the east side and we didn't even blink. At peak, we were getting strong Cat 1/weak Cat 2 winds. You may lose power for a little while but you won't get any substantial grid damage. Don't sweat it.

With that said.... If you have trees leaning towards your home, stay away from that part of your home. A lot of rain and a bit of sustained wind can blow blow em over. Other than that, don't sweat it.


Isabele wasn't much of a storm either and we lost power for 3 days while others went months without. I think we had 35-40 mph winds. When I went driving out the next day it looked like a war zone out there. You would think a cat. 3 came through. I think Isabele was nothing but a depression. And yes I prepared for a power outage just in case. With the heavy rains we've been having the past few days it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see some of the same patterns of Isabele. In any case friday is suppose to be the worse for us here in Va. So I guess we will see what happens. Good night.

Waves are crashing against your boat, the lightening strikes and the rain falls. 'The winds begin to blow tossing your boat to and fro. When suddenly you awake knowing it was just a dream. Windy
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09-01-2006, 04:48 AM
Post: #1269
TD Ernesto main thread
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 01, 2006

...Corrected description of storm motion...
...Ernesto weakening over eastern North Carolina but still producingtropical storm force winds and heavy rains...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Hurricane Watch from South Santee RiverSouth Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina has beendiscontinued...and the Tropical Storm Warning from South SanteeRiver South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina has beendiscontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Cape FearNorth Carolina to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico andAlbemarle sounds. Gale warnings are in effect for the Atlanticcoast and the Chesapeake Bay north of the Tropical Storm Warningarea due to a strong pressure gradient north of Ernesto.
For storm information specific to your area...including possibleinland watches and warnings...please monitor products issuedby your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto waslocated inland near latitude 35.1 north...longitude 77.8 west. Thisposition is about 20 miles...35 km...south-southwest of KinstonNorth Carolina...and about 150 miles...240 km...southwest ofNorfolk Virginia.
Ernesto is moving toward the north near 15 mph...24 km/hr. Acontinued northward motion with a decrease in forward speed isexpected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring thecenter farther inland over eastern North Carolina this morning andover eastern Virginia later today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with highergusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Ernesto moves fartherinland today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185km...mainly to the east from the center.
Surface observations indicate the minimum central pressure is about990 mb...29.23 inches.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected over the mid Atlanticstates...including the central Appalachians...through Sunday...withisolated maximum storm totals of up to 12 inches possible. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is possible over eastern NorthCarolina through Friday afternoon. These rainfall amounts couldcause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levelsis possible along the coast of North Carolina in areas of onshoreflow within the warning area.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina andsoutheastern Virginia through this morning.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...35.1 N...77.8 W. Movementtoward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.Minimum central pressure...990 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National HurricaneCenter at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100am EDT.
$$Forecaster Knabb

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09-01-2006, 05:21 AM
Post: #1270
TD Ernesto main thread
..

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