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08-23-2006, 08:08 AM
Post: #21
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[Image: 97.jpg]

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08-23-2006, 02:20 PM
Post: #22
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Already this year I've been "faked out" twice by waves which "crest" as they approach South America (just as if they were crashing on a beach), then barf in the Lesser Antilles. At present, 97L appears to have an objectively closed LLC (southwesterly elements can be seen moving in here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html )....we'll see if it can hold together. There is quite a bit more convection than with the last system in the same location....

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08-23-2006, 02:24 PM
Post: #23
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The Sal to the north of it is still causing it problems. Still a good 3 days from doing anything .

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08-23-2006, 02:29 PM
Post: #24
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ROLLTIDE Wrote:The Sal to the north of it is still causing it problems.
I'm not seeing it. The southeasterlies have wrapped nearly all the way around this thing, and any SAL air is having to go all the way around to the southwest side to get in. It certainly isn't inhibiting the convection. Also, I'm not seeing any dust or strato-cu in that layer, and, unlike previous systems, the trades are weaker -- not stronger -- than the southeasterly inflow circulation.

Basically, 97L appears to be making itself in true tropical convergence fashion, and isn't just a frontal shear eddy.

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08-23-2006, 03:19 PM (This post was last modified: 08-23-2006 03:37 PM by ROLLTIDE.)
Post: #25
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ROLLTIDE Wrote:The Sal to the north of it is still causing it problems. Still a good 3 days from doing anything .

Hello Weather Gurus,

I am scheduled to leave for Jamaica Saturday 8/26 (I know it is hurricane season and I was on the island for Ivan '04 and should know better). Anyway anyone want to give me odds on this hitting JA. We have a new baby this time and the wife is not so sure she wants to ride another storm. Thanks for any info and I apologize for the non technical tangent.

Thanks
David
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08-23-2006, 03:44 PM
Post: #26
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Seimore Wrote:anyone want to give me odds on this hitting JA.
*IF* 97L forms up into a TS before/near the southern Lesser Antilles, a WNW track would take it very near Jamaica. In another thread I posted about similar "analog" years to this one (1980, 1988); both years featured a single cat-5 WNW-tracking Caribbean hurricane that initially formed near where 97L is. In 1980, Allen threaded between Jamaica and Cuba at 180mph; in 1988, Gilbert plowed directly over Jamaica while still strengthening. Last year, Dennis and Emily came very close to Jamaica, as did Ivan the year before.

Jamaica is pretty much a bulls-eye target for anything tracking west in the Caribbean, so I'd watch the thing tonight to see if it gels.

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08-23-2006, 03:54 PM
Post: #27
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No Closed Circulation

97L T Number is 0.5+0.5+0.5+=1.5

1.5 is 29.9mph, 1008mbar

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08-23-2006, 04:03 PM
Post: #28
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How old is that information, and how much of it was directly sampled?

I'll answer the last one: None.

Estimations are why the models are almost always wrong and always slow with developing systems. Especially with those that go from objectively closed circulations to "actually" closed circulations the split-second that westerlies on the south side become faster than overall westward movement speed.

Curling waves in this vacinity -- provided they can break the cap -- can develop breathtakingly fast. Watch for after sunset to see if a huge red "meatball" suddenly explodes on color IR. (If there's no meatball, then it won't take off to TS, and will instead be taffified as it's elongated in the quickening trades between the Greater Antilles and South America.)

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08-23-2006, 04:08 PM
Post: #29
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Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 23/18Z by the NHC

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08-23-2006, 05:19 PM
Post: #30
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Those models are scaringly familiar to Ivan. This system is also looking well organized this afternoon. Not good.
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