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08-23-2006, 05:31 PM
Post: #31
TD Ernesto main thread
A Strong Tropical Wave Located About 325 Miles East-southeast Of The
Windward Islands Is Moving West-northwestward At About 20 Mph. This
System Has Become Much Better Organized Today...and Environmental
Conditions Appear Favorable For A Tropical Depression Or A Tropical
Storm To Develop During The Next Day Or So. Interests In The
Windward Islands Should Monitor The Progress Of This System As It
Could Produce Wind Gusts To Tropical Storm Force Along With Locally
Heavy Rainfall Tomorrow. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance
Aircraft Is Scheduled To Investigate The System Thursday
Afternoon...if Necessary.

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08-23-2006, 05:49 PM
Post: #32
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Like I stated yesterday, upperl level environmental conditions with this invest were going to hold well through next few days for this to develop, and is low enough in latitude to have escaped the SAL to its north, don't forget that this is the same tropical wave that the GFS last week had hinted in turning into a hurricane this week, but instead this tropical wave did not developed earlier as the GFS earlier forecasted so that is why it has taken a much farther westward track.
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08-23-2006, 07:22 PM
Post: #33
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..
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08-23-2006, 08:48 PM
Post: #34
TD Ernesto main thread
GFDL's 18z run brings this invest into a Cat 2 hurricane by Monday evening just to the E of the Isle of Pines in western Cuba!
[Image: 97LGFDL18z.png]
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08-23-2006, 08:58 PM
Post: #35
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[Image: early1.png]
Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
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08-23-2006, 09:09 PM
Post: #36
TD Ernesto main thread
NDG Wrote:GFDL 18z run brings this invest into a Cat 2 hurricane by Monday evening just to the E of the Isle of Pines in western Cuba!
[Image: 97LGFDL18z.png]

Perhaps its speculation on my part, but I noticed some orange on the northeast side of the possible storm suggesting it might be near Cat. 3 strength at that point.

Erin August 2, 1995 Cat. 2

Opal October 4, 1995 Cat. 3

Ivan (the Terrible) September 15-16, 2004 Cat. 3

Dennis (the Menace) July 10, 2005 Cat. 3
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08-23-2006, 09:16 PM
Post: #37
TD Ernesto main thread
Atlantafan Wrote:Perhaps its speculation on my part, but I noticed some orange on the northeast side of the possible storm suggesting it might be near Cat. 3 strength at that point.

But that is at 950 MB height or at around 1500' above sea level, where winds are at least 15% stronger than at the surface. It tells you at the bottom of the model page.


[COLOR="Blue"][817
ABNT20 KNHC 240213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOMORROW.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
[/COLOR]
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08-23-2006, 09:24 PM
Post: #38
TD Ernesto main thread
[Image: intensity1.png]
Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
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08-23-2006, 09:55 PM
Post: #39
TD Ernesto main thread
Here are the latest OFFICIAL model runs as of 24/00Z by the NHC

Retired from ASA now for some real flying
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08-23-2006, 09:57 PM
Post: #40
TD Ernesto main thread
No red meatball yet....

BTW, the GFDL is nuts if it thinks a storm which is already a hurricane as it skirts Jamaica won't be a strong cat-4 by time it reaches the Isle of Youth. The pocket under Cuba is the best spot in the Atlantic basin for explosive intensification.

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[Image: Iago_aladdin.gif]Impending doom takes all the fun out of decadent living!
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