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08-23-2006, 10:28 PM
Post: #41
TD Ernesto main thread
This is what the GFS is predicting 48 hrs from now, nice upper level high on top of what could be by then T.S. Ernesto, if anything the ULL to its NW could create even a good difluence for convection to get keep on going, I don't see any SW shear coming out of S. America, which in other years it has killed tropical systems when they get south of P.R., the only blocking factor that I see for it to keep developing into a strong system past 48-72 hrs is if it gets too close to the ULL over Cuba by that time, but the GFS is forecasting for that ULL to keep on moving westward, past 48-72 hrs this system should be able to slow down a bit as a slight weakness develops to its NW, thus making it get very close to Jamaica and eastern Cuba. past 5 days, I rather not talk about because it is just too complicated for me to see what could really happen.
[Image: 97L48hr250mb.gif]
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08-23-2006, 11:22 PM
Post: #42
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It looks like it's starting to get that red cherry. I'm going to bed, I wouldn't doubt if it's pretty impressive in the morning.
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08-23-2006, 11:28 PM
Post: #43
TD Ernesto main thread
We could have a TD by sometime in the morning, if it becomes obvious on vis sat that it has a closed LLC, looking at short wave IR satelite loop tonight you can clearly see an inflow starting or trying to start wrapping around, at least in the midlevels.
short wave IR loop
[Image: 97L4zsat.jpg]
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08-24-2006, 12:33 AM
Post: #44
TD Ernesto main thread
MEATBALL!

[Image: 50_20060824.0400.msg1.x.ir1km.97LINVEST.....100pc.jpg]

[Image: meatwad.gif]

[Image: Iago_aladdin.gif]Impending doom takes all the fun out of decadent living!
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08-24-2006, 04:12 AM
Post: #45
TD Ernesto main thread
Smile
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08-24-2006, 04:40 AM
Post: #46
TD Ernesto main thread
[FONT="Courier New"][SIZE="2"]TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HEAVY SQUALLS ARE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THESE ISLANDS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY...INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON[/SIZE][/FONT]

[Image: 97.jpg]
[Image: intensity1.png]
Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Image: hurr_small.gif]
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08-24-2006, 07:09 AM
Post: #47
TD Ernesto main thread
This one definately has my attention and concern. Looks like it is destined for the Gulf and we are starting into the PEAK of the Hurricane season. I have a bad feeling about this one.
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08-24-2006, 07:45 AM
Post: #48
TD Ernesto main thread
This is definately something to watch.

Erin August 2, 1995 Cat. 2

Opal October 4, 1995 Cat. 3

Ivan (the Terrible) September 15-16, 2004 Cat. 3

Dennis (the Menace) July 10, 2005 Cat. 3
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08-24-2006, 08:05 AM
Post: #49
TD Ernesto main thread
Barbados has been having steady winds in the low 30s mph for the past few hours, so as the vis sat loop starts coming in, and we see a westerly wind we could very well have TD or weak TS.
The problem that I see this morning that I didn't think about last night is that is moving too fast, the center could be starting to get ahead of the deep convection, it almost looks like it has to small centers. Also, lets see if it takes advante of the upper level ridge that is forecast to develop just south of P.R. later on today and tomorrow.
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08-24-2006, 08:41 AM
Post: #50
TD Ernesto main thread
SirCane Wrote:This one definately has my attention and concern. Looks like it is destined for the Gulf and we are starting into the PEAK of the Hurricane season. I have a bad feeling about this one.

Sir Cane,

The timing couldn't be worse for Pensacola and the entire gulf coast: right in time for Labor Day weekend. Miss/AL Gulf coast businesses are just starting to get back in business and probably are counting on Labor Day crowds to recoup some $$$$$.

In fact, we're supposed to go to P'cola for Labor Day. (Looking forward to a few bushwackers!) Hope it's not another Elena which went back and forth all along the coast around Labor Day in 1985, I think!

We're in Luling in St. Charles parish and survived Katrina with a few tree limbs down and no flooding. While others complain about their levee not being up to a cat 3 or 5 protection, WE HAVE NO LEVEE!!!!! So we leave early! And St. Charles calls for mandatory evacuation when there's a major t-storm in the gulf!!! so next week could be VERY interesting!!!!!

I'm not ready for this!

Okay you experts: is there a chance it could fizzle out like the one earlier from this year?????
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